In the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, we are treated to a great matchup of Michigan vs UC San Diego. Both teams enter the tournament after winning their respective conferences, Michigan with the Big Ten and UC San Diego with the Big West.
Below, we will preview this March Madness college basketball game, giving the Michigan vs UC San Diego overview, trends and our expert pick! Which school will win and keep their hopes of winning the championship trophy alive?
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Michigan vs UC San Diego Prediction and March Madness Expert Picks
2025 NCAA Tournament
No. 5 Michigan Wolverines (25-9) vs. No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons (30-4)
Date: Thursday, March 20, 2025
Time: 10:00 PM EST
Venue: Ball Arena — Denver, CO
Coverage: TBS
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Michigan vs UC San Diego March Madness Odds
All college basketball betting odds for Michigan vs UC San Diego can be found at BetUS Sportsbook.
Moneyline: MICH: (-140) | UCSD: (+120)
Point Spread: MICH: -2.5 (-110) | UCSD: +2.5 (-110)
Total: 142.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
KenPom Rankings | Bracketology
KenPom Rankings are from KenPom.com
| Team | Rk | AdjO | AdjD | AdjT |
| Michigan | 25 | 116.0 (48) | 93.7 (13) | 69.5 (64) |
| UC San Diego | 37 | 115.0 (60) | 96.6 (32) | 65.7 (271) |
Michigan vs UC San Diego College Basketball Trends
- Michigan is 3-2 in its last five games.
- UC San Diego is 5-0 in its last five games.
- Michigan is 8-3 in non-conference play this season.
- UC San Diego is 10-2 in non-conference play this season.
- Michigan is 5-2 in the NCAA Tournament since 2020.
- UC San Diego is playing in their first NCAA Tournament.
Michigan vs UC San Diego Prediction | March Madness Expert Picks
My guess would be that this will be one of the highest upset picks chosen by brackets across the board in the tournament this season. While there is some merit to looking at UC San Diego and thinking they could get a win in the first round, there are some red flags that people are missing. First of all, this is UC San Diego’s first NCAA Tournament. Second, the Tritons have not played anyone worth substance this season, with their best wins coming against UC Irvine twice. Third, the only team that was in the field of 68 that the Tritons played was San Diego State, who they lost to.
With that being said, UC San Diego is by no means a bad team. They are led by Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, who is having one of the best seasons in the country by a mid-major player. He is averaging 19.5 points per game (PPG) on 57.6% shooting from the field. Outside of Tait-Jones, the Tritons feature three other players who average in double figures, including Hayden Grey, who is shooting 42.8% from behind the three-point line this season. As a team, UC San Diego averages 79.8 PPG. They excel in making other teams make mistakes, forcing 16 turnovers per game.
As for Michigan, the narrative that they will lay down against UC San Diego is crazy to me. Every year, the talking heads and fans alike look for the next team that will make a Kemba Walker-like run. While Michigan did not have to win five games in the Big Ten Tournament, they did win out and come into the tournament on as big of a high as anyone in the country. With Final Four experience from head coach Dusty May and Vlad Golden, from their time at Florida Atlantic, this is not a team that just got lucky and is happy to be here. Speaking of Golden, he and Yale transfer Danny Wolf create an imposing 1-2 seven-footer punch. Golden averages 16.7 PPG and 6.8 rebounds per game (RPG) on 62.3% shooting from the field. Wolf scores 13.1 PPG and sucks in 9.8 RPG on 50.3% shooting from the field. Both players have also shown an ability to get out of the paint and knock down the three-ball. Tre Donaldson is the driving point of the offense at guard, scoring 11.6 PPG and averaging 4.2 assists per game.
I think UC San Diego is a fun team and a fun story, but I also think that they got screwed with the matchup here. This becomes even more apparent after seeing pick and rolls between Wolf and Golden in the Big Ten Championship.
For our Michigan vs UC San Diego prediction, we are picking the Michigan Wolverines to win and move on in the NCAA Tournament.
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