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Miami (Ohio) vs UAB Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Bahamas Bowl

The 2022 College Football Bowl Season officially kicks off on Friday with a Bahamas Bowl matchup between the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks and the UAB Blazers. Both teams have had to navigate injuries at the quarterback position this season. Each side also had to win multiple games down the stretch just to become bowl eligible. Despite the identical records and similar paths through the year, the Miami (Ohio) vs UAB odds and college football betting picks have pegged the Blazers as a decisive favorite.

The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Miami (Ohio) vs UAB prediction for the Bahamas Bowl matchup.

Miami (Ohio) vs UAB Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

Bahamas Bowl
Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (6-6, 4-4 MAC) vs. UAB Blazers (6-6, 4-4 CUSA)
Date: Friday, December 16, 2022
Time: 11:30 a.m. EST
Venue: Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium — Nassau, Bahamas
Coverage: ESPN

Miami (Ohio) suffered a major blow in the first game of the season when quarterback Brett Gabbert went down with an injury. Backup Aveon Smith was able to lead the RedHawks to an upset win over Northwestern, but the offense largely struggled in conference play. Even once Gabbert returned in late October, Miami’s offense remained inconsistent. However, the team’s overall results improved. The RedHawks won three of their final four games to become bowl eligible.

Meanwhile, UAB quarterback Dylan Hopkins was injured in a close loss to Western Kentucky. Despite going winless in his absence, the Blazers were very competitive. They even managed to take eventual league champ UTSA to overtime on the road. Running back DeWayne McBride was a huge part of the team’s success all season and finished as college football’s leading rusher with 1,713 yards. Hopkins was able to return and lead the Blazers to wins in two of their final three games to clinch bowl eligibility.

DeWayne McBride Miami (Ohio) vs UAB prediction odds college football betting picks
Credit: UAB Athletics

Miami (Ohio) vs UAB College Football Betting Picks and Odds

All college football betting odds for Miami (Ohio) vs UAB can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: MIA: (+320) | UAB: (-400)
Point Spread: MIA: +11 (-110) | UAB: -11 (-110)
Total: 45 — Over: (-113) | Under: (-107)

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College Football FEI Ratings

The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Bahamas Bowl matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are froFootball Outsiders

TeamOverall FEI (Rk)OFEI (Rk)DFEI (Rk)
Miami (Ohio)-.49 (102)-.82 (120)-.34 (86)
UAB-.16 (77)-.04 (67)-.18 (72)
  • RedHawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win.
  • The total has gone UNDER in each of the RedHawks’ last five games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Nine of the RedHawks’ last ten games following a close win of three points or less have gone UNDER the total.
  • Blazers are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
  • Each of the Blazers’ last four games has gone OVER the total.
  • Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win.
  • RedHawks are just 1-6 straight up and 2-5 ATS in their last seven matchups against Conference USA opponents.

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Miami (Ohio) vs UAB Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

On the surface, it’s easy to see why the Miami (Ohio) vs UAB odds are so heavily tilted toward the Blazers. Bettors have to keep in mind that UAB’s power rating is much higher than where they finished in the standings. As a result, much of the market expects the Blazers to steamroll their competition in a lesser bowl game.

With that being said, laying 11 points in a bowl game is hardly appealing. This is especially true for a game like the Bahamas Bowl that figures to be minimally impacted by the college football transfer portal and NFL Draft opt-outs. Although Miami (Ohio) QB Brett Gabbert did enter the portal, he has already returned to the program. His status is uncertain, but the fact that the RedHawks already played several games without him this season is a plus.

One key advantage that Miami (Ohio) will have in this matchup is head coaching experience. Chuck Martin has already taken the RedHawks to three bowl games during his tenure. Although last year was the first time a Martin-led team won in the postseason, the two previous matchups were decided by 10 and one points, respectively.

On the contrary, this will be the first bowl game ever as a head coach for UAB’s Bryant Vincent. It’s fair to question whether Bill Clark stepping down just two months before the start of the season was to blame for some of the Blazers’ inconsistency this season.

Provided that the Miami (Ohio) defense can hold its own against standout UAB running back DeWayne McBride, the RedHawks should at least be able to cover the double-digit point spread.

MIAMI (OHIO) COVERS will be our official college football betting Miami (Ohio) vs UAB prediction for the Bahamas Bowl.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives UAB a 76.7% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: Miami (Ohio) +11 (-110 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

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