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Maryland vs NC State Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Duke’s Mayo Bowl

The first of five college football bowl games taking place on Friday features a rather unique postgame celebration. The Maryland Terrapins and the NC State Wolfpack are set to duke it out in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, and the winning team’s head coach will be doused in mayonnaise after the game. While the mayo bath is always a sight to behold, this also figures to be a quality matchup between former ACC rivals on the field as well. The Maryland vs NC State odds and college football betting picks view this game as a virtual toss-up.

The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Maryland vs NC State prediction for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl matchup.

Maryland vs NC State Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Maryland Terrapins (7-5, 4-5 Big Ten) vs. NC State Wolfpack (8-4, 4-4 ACC)
Date: Friday, December 30, 2022
Time: 12 p.m. EST
Venue: Bank of America Stadium — Charlotte, NC
Coverage: ESPN

Many people viewed Maryland as a dark horse in the Big Ten Conference coming into the year. The Terrapins delivered on those expectations early in the season. A 3-0 start was followed by a highly competitive one-score loss on the road against eventual conference champion Michigan. Maryland carried a 6-2 record into the month of November before things started to go sideways. After losing three straight games, the Terps were able to rally for a dominant win over Rutgers in the regular season finale.

Many felt that NC State had the goods to challenge for the ACC Championship this season. Unfortunately, a loss to Clemson in the conference opener put the Wolfpack behind the eight-ball. Despite losing quarterback Devin Leary to a season-ending injury the following week, NC State was able to rally late for a quality win over Florida State. The Wolfpack were only a .500 team the rest of the way but did manage to knock off rival North Carolina in the final week of the regular season.

Drake Thomas Maryland vs NC State prediction odds college football betting picks Duke's Mayo Bowl game predictions
Credit: AP Photo/Karl B DeBlaker

Maryland vs NC State College Football Betting Picks and Odds

All college football betting odds for Maryland vs NC State can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: UMD: (N/A) | NCSU: (N/A)
Point Spread: UMD: +1 (-112) | NCSU: -1 (-108)
Total: 46 — Over: (-105) | Under: (-115)

College Football FEI Ratings

The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Duke’s Mayo Bowl matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are froFootball Outsiders

TeamOverall FEI (Rk)OFEI (Rk)DFEI (Rk)
Maryland.41 (28).51 (37).34 (36)
NC State.17 (53)-.52 (94).68 (20)
  • Terrapins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
  • Five of the Terrapins’ last six bowl games have gone OVER the total.
  • Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.
  • Wolfpack are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.
  • Eight of the Wolfpack’s last ten games played in the month of December have gone OVER the total.
  • Wolfpack are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games played in the month of December.
  • Five of the last six Maryland vs NC State head-to-head matchups have gone OVER the total.

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Maryland vs NC State Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

A slew of NFL Draft opt-outs and transfer portal entrants has muddied the outlook for both sides coming into the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. Given that the majority of departures for both teams are on offense, we could be looking at a fairly low-scoring game.

The quarterback position was a mess for NC State after Devin Leary was lost to injury. FCS transfer Jack Chambers got the first crack at the starting gig but struggled. True freshman MJ Morris was next to receive an opportunity. He managed to lead the Wolfpack to a pair of victories before also succumbing to injury the following week. Redshirt freshman Ben Finley stepped in and promptly led the team to the overtime win against North Carolina.

Talking with the media earlier this week, head coach Dave Doeren indicated that Morris is now healthy and that both he and Finley have been practicing ahead of the bowl game. Whoever is under center will be forced to overcome the absence of wideout Devin Carter who has opted out to prepare for the 2023 NFL Draft. The Wolfpack’s inability to run the football consistently has only put more pressure on the passing attack this season.

Speaking of wide receiver opt-outs, Maryland will be without all three of Dontay Demus, Rakim Jarrett and Jacob Copeland in this game. This is hardly ideal considering that the best way to attack the NC State defense is through the air.

The Wolfpack allowed only 108.8 rushing yards per game this season, good for the 15th-fewest in all of college football. Although leading tackler Drake Thomas has declared for the NFL Draft, he is slated to play in Friday’s bowl game.

With the expectation being that Maryland will struggle to run the ball, QB Taulia Tagovailoa could find himself in a precarious situation. Wideout Jeshaun Jones and tailback Roman Hemby figure to be the primary pass-catchers in the absence of the three NFL-bound receivers. As such, the defenses for both teams figure to have the upper hand in this contest.

UNDER THE TOTAL will be our official college football betting Maryland vs NC State prediction for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Maryland a 52.8% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: UNDER 46 (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

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