A pair of AFC teams that have been trending in polar opposite directions of late will face off Sunday afternoon when the Los Angeles Chargers travel to the Sunshine State to battle the Miami Dolphins. At 2-6, the Chargers are fighting for their playoff lives at this point as they look to snap a two-game skid. The Dolphins, winners of four straight, will be vying to keep pace and possibly even gain ground in the AFC East division race. The NFL odds and expert NFL picks have sided with the home favorite relative to opening lines.
This betting preview contains the NFL odds, key betting trends, prop bets, and best NFL picks for Chargers vs Dolphins on Thursday night.
NFL Odds, NFL Picks and NFL Props | Chargers vs Dolphins
Chargers vs Dolphins Game Info
Los Angeles Chargers (2-6, 1-3 Away) at Miami Dolphins (5-3, 2-2 Home)
Date: Sunday, Nov. 15, 2020
Time: 4:05 p.m. EST
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Coverage: CBS
Attendance: About 13,000 fans will be allowed to attend.
Chargers vs Dolphins NFL Odds
All odds courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook
Opening Lines: Dolphins -1; O/U 47
Moneyline: LAC: (+105) | MIA: (-125)
Spread: LAC: +1.5 (-115) | MIA: -1.5 (-105)
Total: 48.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Chargers vs Dolphins Overview
The Chargers have become the butt of many jokes thanks to their inability to hold onto big leads. Since the start of the 2019 season, Los Angeles has a dismal 3-15 record in games decided by one score. Most recently, L.A. squandered a 24-3 lead to the Broncos two weeks ago and had a potential game-winning touchdown correctly overturned in a loss to the Raiders last week. Despite the poor record, rookie quarterback Justin Herbert has given Chargers fans plenty of hope for the future. Defensively, Los Angeles has too much talent to be surrendering 27 points per game. Everything Herbert is able to do is undone by the Chargers’ inability to get stops. Failure to turn things around could lead to the demise of head coach Anthony Lynn at the end of the season.
The Dolphins’ decision to switch to rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa following their bye week was widely questioned and scrutinized by several NFL odds and NFL picks analysts. After two games, Brian Flores is looking like the coaching genius that he is. Tagovailoa notably did not have to do much in his first career start against the Rams thanks to a dominant performance by Miami’s opportunistic and underrated defense. But last week against the Cardinals, he held his own in a showdown against Kyler Murray, completing 20-of-28 passes for 248 yards and two touchdowns. He also added 35 yards rushing. The Dolphins are suddenly very much in the thick of things when it comes to the AFC playoff picture.
Chargers vs Dolphins Betting Trends
- Chargers 2020 Betting Trends: 5-3 ATS; 5-3 to the Over
- Dolphins 2020 Betting Trends: 6-2 ATS; 3-5 to the Over
- The outright winner has also covered the spread in each of the last 13 head-to-head meetings between the Chargers and Dolphins.
- The road team has won each of the last three head-to-head meetings between the Chargers and Dolphins.
- The Under has hit in 15 of the last 16 head-to-head meetings between the Chargers and Dolphins.
Chargers vs Dolphins Stats
- Los Angeles has averaged 25.6 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 17 in the NFL)
- Los Angeles has surrendered 27.0 PPG this season (No. 21 in the NFL)
- Miami has averaged 27.8 PPG this season (Tied for No. 8 in the NFL)
- Miami has surrendered 20.1 PPG this season (Tied for No. 4 in the NFL)
Monkey Knife Fight NFL Props
Monkey Knife Fight is a DFS site unlike DraftKings or FanDuel. Instead, the contests feature props to play, with varying multipliers for each contest. Unlike the aforementioned sites, you are only competing with yourself on MKF, and you do not need to worry about annoying salary caps.
Monkey Knife Fight has several great NFL props for the entire Week 10 slate. Here is one of my favorites for the Chargers vs Dolphins game.
My overall handicap of this Chargers vs Dolphins game leans towards a shootout. I expect both sides to be scoring points and each of the two talented rookie quarterbacks should have a fine performance. Another added reason to prefer Tua Tagovailoa +30.5 passing stems from the injury issues in the Dolphins backfield. Absence of a consistent ground game could lead to more passing opportunities.
With star Dolphins corner Xavien Howard expected to cover Mike Williams, I love Keenan Allen in this game. I think he will be a go-to target for Justin Herbert, but I also like tight end Hunter Henry. Miami has been good at defending the tight end position this season, but Henry’s steady target floor along with a +0.5 receptions cushion leads me to side with him over Jakeem Grant.
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Chargers vs Dolphins Predictions
The Dolphins have attracted the majority of sharp money in this game so far, seeing the line move from the opening -1 up to -2.5 in their favor. Since then, however, the NFL odds and expert NFL picks have reversed course and bought back on the Chargers. The movement on the total is also something to note. While it’s relatively small compared to some of the other Week 10 over/under line moves, the market has moved the needle up from 47 to 48.5.
This game is just too close for me to confidently call as far as a side. I’d prefer the Chargers catching points, but backing this team is a true hold-your-nose type of pick right now. While the best of the total number is gone, I still am in favor of betting the over on 48.5. Both the Chargers offense and defense have proven to be the perfect material for high scoring games, with each of their last five games sailing over 50 and three surpassing 60 total points as well. While Dolphins games are only 3-5 to the Over on the year, four would have cleared the current line for this game.
Bettors have a choice here to either buy into 48.5 right away or wait and see if the line potentially reverses course over the next few days.
Picks: Over 48.5 (-110 at Bovada Sportsbook)
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