FlurrySports gives predictions and NASCAR betting odds for the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway.
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After a week off to celebrate Easter, the NASCAR Cup Series returns this Sunday at “The Last Great Coliseum”. The spring short-track portion of the schedule continues with the Food City 500 on the concrete surface of Bristol Motor Speedway.
The main difference between this week’s event and the most recent Cup Series race at Martinsville is a much steeper degree of banking in the turns. As a result, the on-track speeds of the cars will be significantly faster.
Bristol is a true short track, and it’s typically the same core cast of drivers that finds success here. As such, track history will be a major factor in this week’s NASCAR betting predictions and handicapping.
Below, we break down the NASCAR betting odds to win the Food City 500, including our top picks and predictions from favorites to long shots with a chance.
Food City 500 NASCAR Race at Bristol Motor Speedway
Food City 500
Date: Sunday, April 12, 2026
Start Time: 3 p.m. EST
Coverage: FS1
Distance: 266.5 miles (500 laps)
Stages: Three (125 laps, 125 laps, 250 laps)
Pole Sitter: TBD
Defending Champion: Kyle Larson
Food City 500 NASCAR Betting Odds to Win
The top of the odds board to win the Food City 500 closely reflects recent finishing trends at Bristol.
Defending race winner Kyle Larson checks in as the NASCAR betting favorite this week and for good reason. Excluding the races contested on the makeshift dirt surface and Larson has three outright wins, a runner-up and two fifth-place finishes in six of the last seven races at Bristol.
From a statistical standpoint, no one compares to Larson at this track. However, Denny Hamlin isn’t far behind. The second choice in this week’s NASCAR betting odds has a pair of wins in the last five races here.
Another name to note this week near the top of the board is Ty Gibbs. With four top-10s in six Cup Series starts at Bristol, it’s clear that he has a knack for navigating this bullring-style track. However, a 9-1 price is certainly an interesting number for a driver still searching for his first Cup Series win.
The table below lists the latest pre-qualifying odds for the full field.
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Food City 500 betting odds are taken from BetUS Sportsbook.
| Driver | Odds to Win | Food City 500 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +350 | Josh Berry | +5000 |
| Denny Hamlin | +500 | Zane Smith | +10000 |
| Ryan Blaney | +600 | Justin Allgaier | +10000 |
| Christopher Bell | +600 | Daniel Suarez | +15000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +900 | AJ Allmendinger | +15000 |
| William Byron | +1050 | Connor Zilisch | +15000 |
| Chase Elliott | +1300 | Austin Dillon | +20000 |
| Chase Briscoe | +1300 | Erik Jones | +20000 |
| Joey Logano | +1800 | John Hunter Nemechek | +25000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +2200 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +25000 |
| Tyler Reddick | +2500 | Michael McDowell | +25000 |
| Carson Hocevar | +2500 | Shane van Gisbergen | +25000 |
| Ryan Preece | +3300 | Noah Gragson | +35000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +3300 | Todd Gilliland | +35000 |
| Ross Chastain | +3500 | Riley Herbst | +50000 |
| Kyle Busch | +3500 | Ty Dillon | +50000 |
| Chris Buescher | +3500 | Cole Custer | +50000 |
| Austin Cindric | +4000 |
NASCAR Betting Picks and Predictions: Who Will Win the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway?
Favorite: Denny Hamlin (+500)
A 5-1 price may not offer a massive return, but you won’t catch me stepping in front of Denny Hamlin this week. The No. 11 Toyota was the dominant car at Martinsville but had to settle for a runner-up finish. Hamlin will be out for revenge at another short track where he thrives.
Over the last ten Cup Series races at Bristol on the concrete surface, Hamlin has won three times. Two of those wins have come in the five most recent starts since 2023, and he has two additional top-5s over that shortened stretch. His average driver rating of 114.6 sits just a tenth behind Kyle Larson over that span.
To further bolster this handicap, it’s worth noting Hamlin’s prowess at Dover International Speedway, the other concrete track surface on the NASCAR circuit. He has won two of the three races there since 2023 and was fifth in the other.
Combine Hamlin’s brilliance on concrete with how strong the team’s short-track setup was at Martinsville, and he’s the driver I want to back this week.
Value Pick: Joey Logano (+1800)
Considering his recent finishing stats at Bristol, it’s easy to see why Joey Logano sits further down the NASCAR betting board. In the five races here since 2023, he has managed just a 22.6 average finish. His lone top-10 over that span was also a top-5, which came in his most recent start last fall.
So if track trends aren’t the reason to get excited about Logano, what is? Two key factors stand out.
First, he rebounded from a disastrous run three weeks ago to finish third at Martinsville. After the race, Logano expressed strong confidence in the Team Penske short-track program and his outlook heading into Bristol.
The other reason is simply his current price point. At 18-1, Logano is teetering on the threshold of being considered a long shot. With positive momentum coming in and optimism surrounding Penske’s short-track setup, this is a number worth grabbing.
Long Shot Hopeful: Brad Keselowski (+2200)
Brad Keselowski enters Bristol with momentum firmly on his side. After finishing second at Darlington, he followed it up with another solid run at Martinsville, continuing a strong stretch for RFK Racing over the past month.
Since becoming a driver-owner at RFK, Keselowski has recorded three top-10 finishes in six starts at Bristol, including a runner-up finish last fall. That success isn’t isolated either — teammate Chris Buescher won here in 2022, reinforcing the organization’s ability to hit on this track type.
Keselowski’s last Bristol win came in 2020 with Team Penske, but his overall performance here remains steady. Over the last ten races on the concrete, he ranks fourth among active drivers with an 11.2 average finish.
The results with RFK have been somewhat inconsistent, but when the setup is right, the No. 6 team has shown it can run near the front.
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