Seattle Seahawks (10-2, 6-0 Away) vs Los Angeles Rams (7-5, 3-3 Home)
Date: Sunday, December 8
Time: 8:20 pm EST
Think back to Week 5 when we were given a not only thrilling football game, but also a thrilling fantasy football game in a Thursday night matchup between these two teams. The Rams, in the last five games, are allowing 20.9 fantasy points to QBs, but that is a little skewed, as the QBs they have played are Ryan Finley, Mason Rudolph, Mitch Trubisky, rookie Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson (who scored 39.6 points). In that stretch, the Rams are allowing an average of 37.3 pass attempts, and the last time these two teams played, Russell Wilson had 32.6 fantasy points on 23 attempts. Lock Wilson in as a QB1 on the week.
On paper, Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny have a tough matchup, but if you look at the Ravens game, who also are a run-first team, then the matchup isn’t as concerning. This backfield has been a timeshare the past two games, as Carson has logged a 54% and 52% snap share, compared to Penny’s 46% and 47%. In an offense as elite as Seattle’s, both RBs become playable, as the team will be in scoring position multiple times and will look to setup the run early. Carson falls into the RB2 category, which places Penny into the FLEX spot with huge upside.
After ghosting his owners last week due to sickness, Tyler Lockett may be presented with another tough matchup this week, as Jalen Ramsey may shadow him. In the last five games, the Rams are allowing 37.2 fantasy points per game to WRs and, with tons of weapons on this Seahawks offense, I am limiting my outlook for Lockett this week. By limiting my projection for Lockett, that means that I am bumping up D.K. Metcalf this week. Metcalf has been a solid flex play with upside since Week 5, with only one “bust” week in that stretch. Since Week 7, Metcalf’s target share has been in range of 21% to as high as 30%, placing him in the “WR1” category. I love Metcalf this week, and I am confident in him as a WR2 for the playoffs.
Although the Rams have been the best team against the TEs over the past five games, I like Jacob Hollister as a low-end streamer play this week. Hollister logged eight targets last week. So due to me doubting Lockett a little bit this week, I think Hollister will be good for six targets, resulting in him finding a streamer play in some lineups.
Los Angeles Rams
We all know the narrative for Jared Goff that proves he plays better at home, and it may seem hard to trust Goff for the opening round of the playoffs, but I think he will have a fine game to keep him in the low-end starter range for this week. The Seahawks are allowing an average of 20.9 fantasy points per game to the QB position in the last five, allowing 45 passing attempts per game in that stretch. This game is not lining up to be a ground and pound game, so I think Goff is a quality streamer this week.
Seattle has had its ups and downs when it comes to stopping the run, but as of late, they have been below average. In the last five games, they are allowing 24.1 fantasy points per game to the RBs. and for a team that features one RB (Todd Gurley), it is lining up to be a smash spot. Gurley has been a rollercoaster when it comes to fantasy points, but the last time he went against Seattle he scored 20.7 fantasy points and was used heavily in the passing game. The key for Gurley to reach that weekly RB1 title is to be featured in the passing game.
Since I don’t even know who the WR1 for this team is anymore, I am just going to combine everyone together. In the last five games, Seattle is allowing 40.9 fantasy points per game to WRs, ranking them at the fifth-most in that stretch, making this a positive matchup for Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks. We can eliminate Cooks from being in your lineup, for he hasn’t scored more than 10 fantasy points since Week 4, so don’t even try to create a narrative to play him. Following Kupp’s, 220-yard performance against Cincinnati, he seemed to fall off the fantasy grid, but he was able to piece it back together last week, posting a stat line of 6-65-1. In the Week 5 matchup, Kupp had 17 targets that resulted in 26.7 fantasy points. I am not for sure if he will command 17 targets here, but I do have confidence in Kupp as a WR2 with upside. Has Woods finally returned to fantasy relevance? I usually don’t like making bold takes for a WR of Goff, but I do think Woods is back to his weekly WR2 self. He has posted fantasy lines of 16.5, 15.7 and 30.2 over the last three weeks and is commanding a solid number of targets, at 11, nine and 19 in that stretch. Woods is in the same category as Kupp this week, and I have confidence in him to keep it going.
With Gerald Everett being out, Tyler Higbee is placed in a solid spot this week. In the last five weeks, Seattle has been gashed by TEs, allowing 18 fantasy points per game in that stretch. In Higbee’s first “start” without Everett this season, he commanded eight targets and turned that into 23.7 fantasy points. Higbee has been seeing around a 50% snap share this season, but the last three weeks that has risen to 76%, 70% and 91%.