Big news for fantasy football fans: we are a month from the first NFL kickoff of the 2019 season. As we still have some time before the season starts, we should get acquainted with the top targets in the draft.
The following list will be the first 12 players that I would take in a typical snake draft, including my reasoning for the order. This will take us through the first round in most leagues.
1) Alvin Kamara RB, Saints
If you are a die hard fantasy football player, you might have an issue with this ranking, since Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley are still available. Both of whom are perfectly acceptable first picks. I am taking Kamara ahead of those two great options for a series of reasons. Elliott, the running back for the Dallas Cowboys, has discipline issues and is currently holding out. Barkley, the running back for the New York Giants, has to deal with this 2019 team that I have minimal confidence in.
As a player, Kamara has been on one of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL. During the 2018 season, Kamara had the New Orleans backfield all to himself for the first four weeks. Afterwards, he shared the work load with Mark Ingram. In the first four weeks of the 2018 season, Kamara was the number one running back in the league. Kamara is, in my opinion, a sure thing as a top-5 running back for every week this upcoming season. Sure, he will once again be sharing the backfield with another running back, Latavius Murray. Not to worry though, even when Kamara was sharing the backfield with Ingram, he was still an incredible asset, averaging 15.6 points per week while sharing the workload.
2) Saquon Barkley RB, Giants
Saquon Barkley is ranked as the number one draft pick throughout numerous sources. His 2018 season, his rookie season, he put up an average of 18.4 points though the season and did not miss a single game. He has no competition in the backfield and is primed to be the prime weapon of this New York offense. Barkley is a once in a decade talent at the position.
The reason he is not the number one pick for me is because this is a team that has taken a step backwards. In 2018, the Giants had a top tier wide receiver and Barkley. This allowed the Giants to spread the ball around and keep the offense less predictable. Trading Odell Beckham Jr., injuries and an early suspension to Golden Tate will make this offense more predictable.
3) Christian McCaffrey RB, Panthers
This may come as another shock to experienced players. Christian McCaffrey is not seen as a top asset in a standard scoring leagues. However, last year he posted an average of 16.3 points per game, which is similar to the average of Ezekiel Elliott (16.8).
During the 2018 season, McCaffrey was on the field over 90% of the Panther’s offensive plays. As a running back, this could be a red flag, as he had an increased chance to be injured. Personally, I worry he was being overused, but I believe this will change in 2019. Hopefully, he will see more rest during the season, but I seriously doubt this will hurt his output. McCaffrey has proven to be the top weapon for Cam Newton.
4) Ezekiel Elliott RB, Cowboys
As I was prioritizing my picks, I found myself not wanting Elliott until Kamara, Barkley and McCaffrey were taken. Now, Elliott is a fantastic pick at any point. If you want him as your first pick, I understand why. Elliott has a stat line of 108.7 rushing yards per game in 2016, 98.3 in 2017, and 95.6 in 2018. The only reason for the drop-off in rushing yards each year is due to his increase in receptions and targets. He is also a thousand-yard rusher when he plays more than ten games a season. To top it off he put up, 16.8 points per game on average in standard scoring. When Elliott plays, you are going to have a player worth starting every week in every format no matter the match-up.
5) DeAndre Hopkins WR, Texans
This should not come as a surprise to most fantasy football players. DeAndre Hopkins is the one wide receiver going into the 2019 season. He has a young quarterback that has shown to sustain a high ranking wide receiver. Those of us that remember last year at this time, not many people had first round rankings for Hopkins. The reason for this was because there was some doubt that Deshaun Watson could sustain Hopkins’ production. The 2018 season proved that Watson was able to keep Hopkins at a high level.
The Texans did not add any assets to their team that could rival Hopkins as their top offensive weapon. The Texans were also a playoff team in 2018, and could make a run for the Super Bowl this year. He has finished as a top-4 wide receiver in three of the past four seasons. Hopkins is an easy first pick for any team who has a mid or late round draft position.
6) Davante Adams WR, Packers
Disclaimer, I am a Packer fan. I have a rule when it comes to fantasy football. I never take advice about a player if the person giving advice is a home town fan of the team that player is on. Their opinions are often inflated. To ease your mind, I made a bold prediction last year that Davante Adams would have a bad year, resulting in a sub 60% reception percentage. I was wrong.
That being said, Adams could end up being the number one wide receiver this season. The Packers brought in a new head coach (Matt LeFleur) and Aaron Rodgers will have a full offseason of rest after dealing with a partially injured leg last season. Rodgers did have an poor season in 2018 and will more than likely bounce back in 2019. This will only create more value for Adams. What makes Adams more valuable is the fact that only Antonio Brown has more touchdowns in the past three years. Add this to a thousand-yard season and Adams will be a top scoring receiver in the league in 2019.
7) Melvin Gordon RB, Chargers
Melvin Gordon has been improving every year since he was drafted, even though the offensive line really hasn’t gotten better. Gordon missed four weeks last year due to injury. His major injury came at the end of the season, which caused him to rush back to appear in the team’s playoff push. Gordon also missed Week 7, but the main injury came at Week 13. If you exclude Week 7, the lowest point total Gordon had in any week before his injury was 14.4 vs the LA Rams. This means that when Gordon was healthy he was the most consistent high scoring running back in the league.
The reason Gordon falls to number 7 on my list is due to his offensive lin, and his high scoring week scarcity. In 2018, Gordon only had one week where he scored above 25 points (Elliott had three; McCaffrey had three; Barkley had four; Kamara had three).
Of course, this ranking is assuming Gordon and the Chargers figure their contract negotiations out.
8) Julio Jones WR, Falcons
Julio Jones has finished as a top-20 receiver in all eight of his seasons, which by itself does not warrant a first-round pick. What makes him a first-round pick is that he has not finished under WR7 since 2013. He is on a team that will feature a pass-heavy offense and has had the consistency that I love to see in a fantasy asset.
I would compare Jones to a beam. When you are building a house, you need a solid supporting construction. A beam is not the flashiest piece of the home, but it is a piece that is important to the integrity of the house. Your first pick in any draft should be the a piece that supports your team. Julio is one of the last players in this article that has this fundamental value as the backbone, the keystone, the engine or the foundation of your team. Several analysts have him outside of the top-12 — this is a mistake. Julio had eight top-10 weeks at the position in 2018, which was the best in the league.
9) David Johnson RB, Cardinals
David Johnson had a down year in 2018, but I don’t think you could blame him at all. Playing for the worst team in the league, he had an average of 3.64 yards per carry and had an average rate of 1.44 yards after the catch, which is one of the worst rates among running backs. Overall, the Cardinals couldn’t get the job done anywhere on the field.
This team has made some moves this offseason to greatly improve Johnson’s role as the workhorse back. They hired Kliff Kingsbury, a college coach who has used running backs as pass-heavy options, as well as workhorse backs. They also added Kyler Murray in the draft, hoping to increase the effectiveness at quarterback. Johnson is my number one pick as a bounce back target in 2019 and I am willing to take him towards the back of the first round.
10) Michael Thomas WR, Saints
In a ten-team league, Michael Thomas is a great player to take on the turn. Thomas finished the 2018 season with an 84% catch rate, while bringing in the most receptions in the league (125). Thomas’ career is just budding, with only three years under his belt. In 2017, he held a 70% catch rate and finished in the top-six for both receptions and yards. In 2016, he finished in the top-10 for both receptions and yards. Thomas is almost a sure thing to get targets and yards, but he is not as consistent at bringing in touchdowns. This is not to say that Thomas is a bad red zone target. It says that the Saints are willing to use other targets in the red zone.
Thomas makes it into my top ten because he is on a highest-scoring offense, is the number one receiving option in New Orleans and has outstanding catching ability. He has a high probability of ending up a top-five receiver this season.
11) Todd Gurley RB, Rams
At the end of the 2018 season, most people were confused with Todd Gurley. He ended the year on a sour note, being essentially replaced by C.J. Anderson, who the team brought in last minute before the playoffs. The strange thing was that the team did not reveal why Anderson was out-pacing Gurley. Come to find out Gurley was dealing with some knee pain and the team was not releasing details about his issues.
The biggest problem here is that even with him missing the last couple weeks of the year, and most of the playoffs, Gurley was seen as the clear number one pick in all fantasy formats for the 2019 season. But according to the team, he is dealing with arthritis in his knee, which is basically inflammation of the joint. Symptoms include pain, swelling, reduced range of motion and stiffness. He could miss time in 2019 trying to correct this ailment. At this point, Gurley is a risky player to take, which is why he has dropped to pick number 11 for me.
12) Joe Mixon RB, Bengals
Joe Mixon’s 2018 season may be seen as a breakout. He played in 14 games and posted 4.9 yards per carry over that time. He finished tenth in fantasy points among running backs, fourth in total yards and sixth in carries. Some are considering Mixon as a fringe RB1 for the 2019 season. To me, Mixon will end up as RB1 this season, no problem. Cincinnati hired a new offensive-minded head coach in Zac Taylor.
As Mixon wraps up the top-12, it is important to note that this list could change. It all depends on how the players perform in the preseason, and you also have to worry about injuries sustained in training camp and other team performances.
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