With your fantasy football draft right around the corner, smart fantasy managers are already doing their research. Among the most complicated position group in fantasy football are tight ends.
Due to the lack of depth, relative to other positions, tight ends have almost become an afterthought in fantasy football. Obviously, there are the studs (Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Mark Andrews), but what about the rest?
In this article, I am going to make some sense of this position. If you don’t get a Kelce or Kittle, you may be better off waiting in your fantasy football draft than reach on someone who won’t produce. Here are three tight ends that are currently being overvalued in redraft leagues, with all scores and ADP based on PPR scoring.
Fantasy Football Draft: Overvalued Tight Ends
Darren Waller | ADP: 4.08
Because there is not much parity at the tight end position, it makes sense why a big name like Darren Waller is going late in the fourth round of fantasy football drafts. Obviously, the threat to Waller’s fantasy success is the Raiders’ addition of Davante Adams. Adams is the best receiver in the NFL and a top-15 player in the league. That addition alone hurts Waller’s fantasy production. Waller has had a target share of 24% or more throughout the last three seasons, which is sure to drop, considering that Adams and Derek Carr were college teammates.
Outside of Adams, Waller is coming off of a significant injury. He played 11 games last season, totaling 665 yards and only two touchdowns. The emergence of Hunter Renfrow last season is also something to watch for, in terms of Waller’s target share.
Though the TE position is thin for fantasy football, other players who are being drafted at the end of the fourth round and early in the fifth round include Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin and Damien Harris. With better fantasy options being available, it makes more sense to let your leaguemate deal with the headache that will be Waller this season and take someone else in your fantasy football draft.
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Dawson Knox | ADP: 7.09
Dawson Knox led all tight ends in receiving touchdowns last year. However, many people are looking at him as a sleeper this year. I am on the opposite side of that train.
Close to one-third of Knox’s fantasy points came solely from touchdowns. He only caught 49 passes. The good news for Knox is that he plays for a Super Bowl contender. The bad news is that he is not a focal point on the Bills. A big argument for tight ends is that they are the safety blanket over the middle. The Bills don’t need that because Josh Allen runs. While the red zone seems to be the place for Knox to succeed, Allen (often doing his best Cam Newton impression) is a vulture.
Outside of the scheme, the Bills added O.J. Howard in the offseason. Howard seems to fit more as a receiver in the NFL, as opposed to a blocker. The Bills also added Jamison Crowder in the offseason to replace Cole Beasley. Another addition to the offense comes in the form of drafting Khalil Shakir. While none of these players scream superstar, it is obvious that the Bills are revamping their offense to make that Super Bowl push.
Players currently being drafted behind Knox are Russell Wilson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tom Brady and Rashod Bateman. Both receivers are number one options on their teams and Wilson and Brady have the weapons needed to succeed once again. There are better options at the end of the seventh round in a fantasy football draft than Knox. Fantasy managers should heed their expectations on Knox, as more mouths need to be fed in this offense, compared to last year.
Pat Freiermuth | ADP: 9.06
Pat Freiermuth’s connection with Ben Roethlisberger last year may have helped many fantasy owners get to the playoffs and even a championship. The only problem with that for this year is that Roethlisberger no longer plays football. Instead, the Steelers signed Mitch Trubisky and drafted Kenny Pickett. With it still unknown who will start Week 1, fantasy managers may want to take a step back from Freiermuth.
Outside of the questions surrounding the quarterback position, let’s take a look at the skill position players on the Steelers’ depth chart: Najee Harris, Dionte Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, George Pickens and Calvin Austin. That is a lot of mouths to feed for a quarterback who didn’t start last year or is a rookie QB.
The addition of Pickens is the most concerning, as he is listed at 6-3, 200 lbs. That screams red zone target for Pittsburgh, and much of the TE’s fantasy production last season was based on touchdowns. Also, Austin should be used in a variety of ways, including motion and lining up all over the offense. With two new rookie additions, the most reasonable spot for them to get production is at the cost of Freiermuth.
Other notable players who are being drafted after Freiermuth include Derek Carr, Mike Gesicki, Claypool, James Cook, Drake London and Michael Gallup.
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