It’s officially the NFL offseason, but there is no offseason for dynasty fantasy football! Today, we will be doing a dynasty value Keep-Trade-Cut for Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler. It’s not a secret that when it comes to fantasy football, these three players have won many games for owners across all sorts of leagues. All three have been polarizing topics in the fantasy world, and it’s hard not to wonder about what the future has in store for these guys.
The idea throughout the league is that general managers devalue running backs once they reach the age of 28 or older. It is believed that they start to decline, in terms of production, due to them being out of their athletic prime. Running backs take more hits than most positions due to the number of touches they see in high-collision areas. Pass blocking takes a physical toll on these guys as well, especially when you have Myles Garrett or a Bosa brother running at you with a full head of steam.
Based on injury history and recent production, we will do a Keep-Trade-Cut for Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler below, in terms of dynasty fantasy football value.
For clarity, the player we “keep” is the player we would want to keep on our dynasty team. We believe the value they produce for us would be more than what we could get in a trade. On the other side, the “trade” player has value, but the value of the potential returns outweighs the player himself. Finally, the “cut” player is viewed as the least valuable of the bunch for the 2024 dynasty fantasy football offseason.
Dynasty Fantasy Football Keep-Trade-Cut
Keep: Aaron Jones, Packers (Age 29)
I believe the offensive scheme that running backs are in can make or break their fantasy production. One scheme that has proven to work year after year when given the right skill players is the Shanahan scheme. Aaron Jones is a “One-Cut-and-Go” running back and has shown to fit the zone running scheme to a tee. Matt LaFleur branches right off the Shanahan tree and has proven that he wants to run the ball to help Jordan Love in the play-action passing game. With the emergence of Love and an onslaught of offensive weapons, I believe the Green Bay Packers will have one of the most productive offenses in the NFL for the foreseeable future, and Jones will be the lead back for at least one more season.
The injury history is a red flag with Jones, but I don’t see that as a factor when comparing him to Chubb and Ekeler based on the fact that all three of them have an extensive injury history. I do not believe that A.J. Dillon will be wearing a Packer uniform next season, as he is set to hit free agency. I could see Green Bay drafting a running back with one of their late-round picks and letting him sit behind Jones. This is important because Jones will most likely see a bigger workload if this does happen.
Trade: Nick Chubb, Browns (Age 28)
I know that many dynasty fantasy football owners are going to disagree that I have Chubb ranked behind Jones in terms of dynasty value. The primary reason for this is that recent reports indicate that the Browns could cut Nick Chubb due to his very large cap hit in 2024. It does not help Chubb’s case that the team may have found a potential replacement for him in Jerome Ford, as he was productive without Chubb last season. His status for Week 1 is up in the air, and there is always the possibility that he won’t return to his old self. Ford is also under contract for the next two seasons with the Browns and is on a much cheaper contract.
Now, I believe that there would be many teams lined up to bid on Chubb’s services. This is why I have him ranked second in this dynasty fantasy football Keep-Trade-Cut analysis. I’m not sure which team will land him. I will be much more confident in Nick Chubb’s fantasy production if he lands on a team that will feature him as a workhorse back. The Cowboys would be a great fit, assuming they move on from Tony Pollard this offseason. An even better fit would be the Los Angeles Chargers, assuming they move on from Austin Ekeler, which brings us to our third player.
Cut: Austin Ekeler, Chargers (Age 28)
Austin Ekeler is considered a “league winner” in the eyes of many fantasy players after his heroic late-season stretches in both 2021 and 2022. In the last five games he started in both seasons, he averaged 19.82 PPR points per game in 2021 and 20.68 in 2022. These performances helped many, including myself, win their fantasy football league trophy or championship belt. As much as it pains me to say this, I’m afraid that those days are over for him, as is his time in Los Angeles.
One reason he was able to be so productive as a PPR RB was his ability to contribute as a receiver. When Brandon Staley was at the helm in Los Angeles, the team found themselves in passing situations due to them trailing often. This would lead to Ekeler earning easy checkdowns from Justin Herbert which made him a PPR machine. With Jim Harbaugh now coaching the team, I feel like Ekeler is just a bad fit within the Harbaugh scheme. Harbaugh tends to lean towards bigger, more physical backs who can excel while running between the tackles. That is sort of the opposite of what Ekeler’s skill set brings to the table.
I find it very hard to see a scenario in which the Chargers retain Ekeler under the new scheme as well as the salary cap issues the team is currently dealing with. Even if Ekeler remains with the team, his production declined at a steep rate this past season. It makes me wonder if he is already past his athletic prime. I would like to see him on a team like the Texans to give C.J. Stroud another receiving option out of the backfield and hopefully have a bounce-back year. Still, the decline in production and questions about his future team make him our “cut” in this dynasty fantasy football Keep-Trade-Cut analysis
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