College Football is now only one week away from Conference Championships, and everything is suddenly up for grabs. With five upsets in the top-15 ranked teams and six in the top-20, there are a lot of storylines to watch as we attempt to guess who will be let into the dance for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff heading into the final week of regular play.
Biggest College Football Playoff Storylines to Watch This Week
1. Big Ten’s Dominance
While the prevailing thought going into Week 13 was that the Big Ten was the more untested of the two powerhouse conferences, no one can deny their dominance now. The Big Ten had four different top-five teams in the College Football Playoff coming into the week, and now it seems likely that all four of those schools are a lock for a respective spot in the playoff.
Despite a pretty substantial loss to Ohio State, Indiana took their first loss and, at worst, could finish with two losses if they were to lose to Purdue next week, shockingly. But following the chaos in the SEC this past week, even all roads for Indiana still look promising. Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon are also out of room to fall out. The Big Ten Championship is still up for grabs, however, with Oregon waiting on three possible opponents. Ohio State is in with a win, Penn State is in with a win and OSU loss, and Indiana would need both to lose for a chance at redemption before the playoffs.
So, while the 2024 College Football Playoff itself will determine the reputation of the Big Ten this season, it looks like they will have four contenders to prove that reputation right or wrong.
2. SEC Scrambling For College Football Playoff
The Big Ten’s more certain future comes from one of the most unbelievable weeks in college football this season for the sheer quantity of upsets, especially in the mighty SEC. Now, the question is how much will the constant cannibalism of the SEC impact the Playoff Committee’s choices. Ole Miss, Texas AM and, most shocking of all, Alabama all suffered their third losses of the season in Week 13. None of these three lost to a ranked team. While each of these teams has impressive wins this season, three losses likely mean that at most one of these teams will get in, and that even would be controversial. After their loss to Florida, it’s Ole Miss who’s season is likely doomed as it will have a less compelling case now that any team with less losses, and other SEC three-loss teams.
Those SEC teams with three losses who still have causes to be hopeful, even sparingly, are Texas A&M, Alabama, and South Carolina now. Texas AM controls its own destiny, weirdly enough. Even with the losses, they beat Texas in the last week before Championship week, then they’re in the SEC Championship. If they win that, they are obviously in. Alabama could get in if they beat Auburn in their last game, and then it will be up to the committee to choose if they like Alabama’s strength of schedule including wins over Georgia and South Carolina instead of a second ACC team and a Big 12 winner most likely. For South Carolina, they’d have the same case as Alabama, but would need more chaos including another Alabama loss and some upsets in the ACC as well.
Lastly, the SEC’s second juggernaut behind Texas, Georgia has their own trap to escape from. While they will almost certainly beat Georgia Tech to finish the season, they have secured a birth in the SEC Championship game due to tiebreakers already. So now, they have to play the aforementioned Texas A&M or Texas no matter what, and that means they either win the SEC or take their third loss of the season. If they do lose once more, the committee will have to decide one more three-loss SEC team’s fate, a fate that would certainly look different if that loss came to Texas instead of Texas A&M. So, with two weeks to go, the most outrageous storyline to follow is the SEC could only bring three teams into the College Football Playoff, and the only two teams who should feel certain at this time are Texas and Tennessee who survived their own chaos from a couple weeks ago. Any given Sunday indeed.
3. Wild Card’s Control CFP Destiny
The two teams who should now feel much better about their playoff fortunes are two contenders from outside the Power 4 conferences. The independent Notre Dame will almost certainly lock up the fifth seed (the highest they can attain without being in a conference), and Boise State of the Mountain West should go from wondering if they will lose an arm wrestling contest with the SEC to firm control of their own path. While these two teams have had plenty of reason to doubt their strength of schedule, both only have one loss. And if they win out, that will be enough to secure a place in the playoffs.
Notre Dame would make it in now even if they lost to USC in their last game. If anything, fans of turmoil should be rooting for Boise State to finish strong, as winning out may even secure a top-four seed. The 12-team playoff guarantees the top four conference winners receive a bye, and with the upsets to BYU and Colorado continuing the collapse of the Big 12, the Mountain West could be projected to sneak that fourth spot. It highlights how one week of football could have just ensured that the first 12-team version of the CFB Playoff will have plenty of wildcards in play, and likely with no need to fear exclusion.
4. How Many ACC Teams Will Be Selected For CFP?
The biggest question mark to watch moving forward is how much credit the College Football Playoff Committee will give to the ACC. One week ago, skeptics were curious if the best team in the ACC to this point, Miami, was deserving of their eight-seed with one loss to Georgia Tech. Now, the question will be how many teams get in from the ACC, not if the champion makes it. Assuming no upsets happen to Miami or second-best SMU this final week, those one-loss teams should each feel good about making it in at this point, to my logic. Whoever has a second loss would have gathered it from the other, and that seems like a fine line to draw in comparison to putting in a two-loss Big 12 champion or three-loss SEC team instead. I would even make the case that SMU, whose one loss was to a former top-10-ranked BYU, should certainly feel guaranteed with even a second loss if it’s to Miami in the ACC Championship. If you wanted to make the argument for Miami’s inclusion at a second loss, that could be slightly more compelling, especially since I think Clemson will have a strong argument as well.
Clemson is currently ranked 17th and is my team to watch for their jump in the rankings this week. Coming into a matchup with the equally-boosted South Carolina, this week could set up everything for the Tigers. Clemson can’t make it into the ACC Championship without a win and a Miami loss to Syracuse, but they certainly would be in if they won that championship. However, there’s an argument for a third ACC team at this time if the committee decides to cut the line firmly at three losses for others. Clemson could win this week, only have two losses, and would have just beaten an SEC team also on the verge of the playoff. At that time, do you really bet against the committee wanting to see Dabo and the boys in?
The committee has a history of loving final week “win and your in” games, and there could be no bigger game to watch than Clemson’s. The question is, will the committee really sacrifice a fourth SEC team for a second or especially a third ACC team? It will be a last-minute decision for sure.
5. Will the Big 12 Get in the College Football Playoff?
My final takeaway is a sad one for fans of the Big 12, but perhaps the most interesting for the future of this playoff format, and the Power 4 conferences. While the SEC upsets may have dominated the headlines, the Big 12 may have quietly sealed their fate in entirely missing the 2024 College Football Playoff.
Going into Week 13, some were already crying out when it seemed likely Boise State would have to oust either the ACC or Big 12 rather than limiting the number of SEC teams in the field. Now, the second and third losses, respectively, of BYU and Colorado seems to be the nail in that coffin. BYU was the top-ranked team in the Big 12 coming into the week and were already outside looking in, at rank 13. Now, with even the hope of a hot Colorado winning the whole thing dashed, the question remains of what will the committee prioritize.
Iowa State seems to be the only chance of having a Big 12 champion finish strong enough to make it, but eight teams have a chance to make that championship game with several having lost any realistic chance without a Boise State loss. So, what are we praying for regarding the Big 12’s chances? Boise State could lose, making it likely the committee would shift back to the Big 12 as their fourth conference. Or, the committee simply needs to pick the Big 12 winner over a three-loss Alabama or other outside contender. If the committee wants an excuse to get as many conferences in as possible, they’d have an excellent excuse. But, the rankings this week have likely already hinted at the direction this decision will go, which spells bad news for Big 12 hopefuls.
