With the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears selected Caleb Williams from USC, envisioning him as their starting quarterback for the foreseeable future. We know he has an abundance of talent, but what is Caleb Williams’ fantasy football value for his rookie season?
Unlike many rookie quarterbacks, Williams’ fantasy stock will be relatively high from the jump because of his abilities and the talent around him.
2024 Chicago Bears Outlook
Last spring, the Chicago Bears traded out of the top pick following a 3-14 campaign in an effort to try to build around Justin Fields. As a result, they acquired DJ Moore from Carolina and spent some money in free agency to add impact players. The Bears improved, finishing 7-10 this time around, but they still didn’t see enough from Fields to make him their long-term answer at quarterback.
Fortunately, the 2024 first-round pick that they acquired from Carolina a year ago was first overall and allowed them to select Caleb Williams. Additionally, they traded for Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze. That wide receiver trio of Moore, Allen, and Odunze coupled with tight end Cole Kmet and an improving offensive line should make for a great situation for a quarterback to play in.
Caleb Williams Fantasy Profile
If you did any college football daily fantasy contests over the past two years, Caleb Williams was typically a safe and productive selection. In his 26 starts at USC, Williams averaged 314 yards passing, 20 yards rushing and he had a 72:10 touchdown to interception ratio. He routinely made highlight plays with both his arm and legs which resulted in big gains and extended drives. Williams has the arm talent to make just about every throw imaginable which resulted in a terrific college career from a fantasy perspective.
However, not everything he did in college will translate to the NFL and there will almost certainly be some growing pains early in his career. He tends to hold the ball too long in the pocket and look for the home run as opposed to just taking what’s there on schedule. That “hero-ball” mentality could result in more sacks and turnovers in the NFL. Early on, it will be about finding that balance between trying to make the big plays and finding/taking the easy stuff.
Caleb Williams’ Fantasy ADP
According to Fantasy Data, Caleb Williams’ average draft position (ADP) in PPR fantasy drafts currently slots in as QB12 and 108th overall in PPR rankings. This puts him behind quarterbacks like Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy, but he is getting selected ahead of Jared Goff and Jayden Daniels.
Where Should I Draft Caleb Williams in Fantasy Football 2024?
Amongst quarterbacks, I think the 12-15 range is right for Williams. My fear for him, especially early in his career, is not always taking the easy throw and playing too much off-schedule will result in the team being unable to string together first downs. If that is the case, it would limit red zone trips for the Bears and thus lessen his touchdown potential.
On the flip side, his style will result in explosive plays and some big gains. Factor in his trio of receivers, who know how to get open and can make plays after the catch, and Caleb Williams’ fantasy football owners will likely enjoy some big fantasy weeks in his rookie season. Also, he will make plays with his legs and those yards add up quickly for a fantasy quarterback. At USC, he only averaged 20 rushing yards a game, but sacks count negatively toward a quarterback’s rushing yards in college football. Williams has the athleticism and mobility to both extend plays and gain yards with his legs. His physical traits, along with the weapons that the Bears have, should give him a high fantasy floor for a rookie.
Overall, I’d start to consider Caleb Williams around the 80th pick in drafts, especially if I liked a quarterback option who I could pair him with later in the draft. If Williams puts it all together in year one, he could be a league-winner by playoff time. I wouldn’t necessarily feel comfortable with him as the lone quarterback on my roster, but love the upside that he presents.
