The Alabama Crimson Tide are taking on the Missouri Tigers at Mizzou Arena tonight in what will be a big game between two heavyweights in the SEC. Let’s take a look at college basketball betting picks, odds, trends, and Haslametrics, then give our Alabama vs Missouri prediction.
Alabama vs Missouri Prediction | College Basketball Game Tonight
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (21-4, 10-2 SEC) vs. No. 15 Missouri Tigers (19-6, 8-4 SEC)
Date: Wednesday, February 19, 2025
Time: 9:00 PM EST
Venue: Mizzou Arena — Columbia, MO
Coverage: SEC Network
Alabama vs Missouri College Basketball Betting Picks and Odds
All college basketball betting odds for Alabama vs Missouri can be found at BetUS Sportsbook.
Moneyline: ALA: (-109) | MIZ: (-110)
Point Spread: ALA: +1.5 (-120) | MIZ: -1.5 (+105)
Total: 170.5 — Over: (-108) | Under: (-112)
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Haslametrics College Basketball Rankings
Haslametrics College Basketball Rankings are from Haslametrics.com
| Team | Rank | Pace | Offensive Eff | Defensive Eff | Momentum |
| Alabama | 9 | 72.70 (1st) | 126.15 (6th) | 97.26 (33rd) | 0.93 (131st) |
| Missouri | 12 | 66.30 (183rd) | 126.66 (5th) | 98.12 (37th) | 5.25 (14th) |
According to Haslametrics’ All-Play Estimates and automated game preview, the Missouri Tigers are projected to upset the Alabama Crimson Tide, 85-82.
Alabama vs Missouri College Basketball Betting Trends
- Alabama is 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine road games.
- The OVER is 3-2 in Alabama’s last five games.
- Missouri is 4-1 ATS over their last five games.
- The UNDER is 3-2 for Missouri in their last five games.
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Alabama Basketball Preview | College Basketball Betting Picks
If you want to stop the Alabama Crimson Tide, you have to stop their three-point shot from falling. In their most recent matchup against #1 Auburn at home, the shots were not falling. Alabama’s elite offense was held to just 19% shooting from behind the arc and under 39% from the field. While the game was close, they never led throughout the entire game and the loss has them a game out of first place in the SEC with a brutal conference schedule left to come.
One of the biggest reasons Alabama fell to Auburn was because guard Mark Sears was completely shut down. Although he put up 18 points, he did it shooting just 4/17 from the field and 2/11 from three-point range. If Alabama has any chance to keep up with a Missouri team that has an offense that is just as good as theirs, they need Sears to show up and shoot much closer to his average.
Missouri Basketball Preview | College Basketball Betting Picks
Simply put, the Missouri Tigers live and die by their depth. More specifically, Missouri lives and dies by the play of Caleb Grill as of late. In their two big wins over Ole Miss and Mississippi State, Grill scored 20 and 22 points, respectively. In their two losses right after those wins, Grill was held to 11 and 4 points, respectively.
This Missouri basketball team is obviously more than just Caleb Grill off the bench. Guards Tamar Bates and Mark Mitchell combine to score over 26 points per game for the Tigers and the offense runs through them often. Both guys shooting 48-50% from the field and Bates is an incredible free throw shooter, making just under 93% of his attempts from the charity stripe. With that in mind, there is a clear correlation between how Grill plays and how the game plays out for Missouri as he averages just under 13 points per game on the season, but just five points per game in losses. If Alabama can lock up Grill and limit the scoring options for the Tigers, they will struggle to pull off the upset.
Alabama vs Missouri Prediction | College Basketball Betting Picks
Although both teams are incredibly similar, and both place plenty of their scoring load on individual players, Alabama has better depth than Missouri. Not only do they have better depth overall, they have multiple players that can step up off the bench whereas Missouri has only had one consistent option so far this year.
Historically, Sears has done a great job of bouncing back after losses. Outside of one performance against Illinois where he went 0/5 from the field, Sears averages 22 points per game for the Crimson Tide after losses. I’d expect him to do the same against Missouri. Alabama head coach Nate Oats is a great coach who always has his guys ready to go after losses.
Alabama certainly won’t run away with this game, but expect them to stay in control for most of the game. The Crimson Tide have just too much offense for Missouri and will likely pull away late. This game will be decided by single digits, but Alabama should be able to win by two or three possessions. Pick Alabama to get the win in a tough environment.
Our college basketball betting Alabama vs Missouri prediction tonight will be ALABAMA WINS at BetUS.
For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Alabama a 57.5% chance to win.
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