Usually, if you have a problem with your fantasy football lineup, it doesn’t stem from the quarterback position. Most of the time, the quarterback alone doesn’t determine whether or not you make the playoffs. What it can do though is serve as the difference between a championship and falling short in the playoffs. With elite quarterbacks, like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, being taken early, the position can seem like a minefield for those who wait or miss out.
With draft season approaching quicker than many realize, here are three fantasy football quarterbacks to avoid at all costs. The ADP’s were taken from Fantasy Football Calculator on August 10th.
Joe Burrow
For the record, I love Joe Burrow. He definitely has the potential to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league, in a few years. The only problem is he doesn’t have an offensive line. If you didn’t watch any Cincinnati Bengals games last season, he was getting absolutely mauled out there. The addition of wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is nice, but he won’t be able to protect him. Burrow is a good option when he’s on the field, but can we trust him to stay on it?
He is a young quarterback, so he should be able to heal quicker than a Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers could. With that being said, it wasn’t just a regular old tear. Burrow tore his ACL, MCL, PCL and his meniscus. This isn’t something you just come back from without a steep learning curve. Add in the fact that the Bengals have said they won’t throw him out until the season starts, and he will have very little time to get back to form.
With Burrow being taken as the 13th QB overall (ninth round in 12-team drafts), there are many more quarterbacks that will be available that are much safer bets. Even if you believe Burrow will be healthy, won’t lose any of his midseason form and will get blocking from a largely unchanged offensive line, according to our consistency rankings, Burrow was a “starter” (top 12 QB) just 30% of the time. That doesn’t bode well for someone who would likely be your QB1.
Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts stepped in for Carson Wentz last season and looked good, quite frankly. He was certainly a difference maker not only on the field, but in the locker room as well. The only problem was that he was a rookie. While not all rookie quarterbacks regress, running quarterbacks usually do at a higher rate than others. Hurts was a “starter” 75% of the time, but he also had little scouting done on him, little film and was playing in a division where Washington was really the only team that offered any resistance against anybody consistently.
With a new season, and a whole offseason to plan, Jalen Hurts will surely regress. Not only did the Washington defense somehow get even better, Dallas and New York improved as well.
At the end of the day, few believe that Jalen Hurts is a top-12 quarterback in fantasy. His ADP currently sees him taken as the 12th quarterback off the board, with the average selection in the ninth round. He does have quite the upside, but to risk a fantasy football draft pick that high for a guy who has only played for four games seems a bit much.
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Trey Lance
Trey Lance could be a very good quarterback in the league very soon. How confident are you that it’s going to be his rookie season? Lance is currently projected as the 18th quarterback off the board. While that certainly isn’t very high, he’s taken above Kirk Cousins, Ben Roethlisberger and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Cousins and Big Ben were both top-15 quarterbacks last season and Fitzpatrick was a “boom” or “starter” over 57% of the time.
With no clear decision on whether or not Lance will start this season, taking him above any of those three is a sizable risk. Although he is likely to start at some point, when will that be? What happens if Jimmy Garoppolo plays well again? Up until the loss in Super Bowl LIV, he looked like a quarterback competent enough to lead the 49ers. If that happens again, which he’s shown before, why would they not sit Lance and give him more time to come up to speed?
The name of the game in fantasy football is simple and repetitive, but still important. It’s all about mitigating risk. If your starting quarterback goes down, would you be confident that a rookie quarterback, who may not even start and plays in the NFC West, could be enough to help win a fantasy football title over proven vets who arguably have more weapons? I didn’t think so.
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