It happens every year. We go into our fantasy football drafts with so much excitement and hope, only to see certain guys we were high on fall flat. The sting of that dreaded word, “bust,” lingers in the back of our minds as we try to justify early draft picks that haven’t lived up to all the preseason hype and expectation. We drafted them too high to drop, but their value is too low to cut bait in a trade. Chances are this has happened to you, and as much as it hurts to revisit painful fantasy football memories, now is the time to reflect on the players from last year who fit this bill with the hope that they can resurface in 2024.
The quarrel we struggle with every year is whether a bounce back from these players is in the cards, as a drop in ADP (average draft position) always follows up a poor season. The question is, do you buy the dip and invest in a potential bargain, or is the risk too high and you’d rather just wash your hands clean of these players? Sure, there are some players who have flashed that we take chances on again and again, but sometimes we vow never to touch that player again after getting burned too many times (I’m looking at you, Will Fuller).
Let’s take a look at 5 players who I am willing to target as bounce-back candidates for the 2024 season. Keep in mind, league size matters, and most of the guys I will mention are more of the bench stash variety who could develop into every-week starters in deeper 10 or 12-team leagues with bigger rosters. After all, coming off a down year, the plan shouldn’t be to immediately count on these players right away, but more so guys you should invest in to fortify your roster that can provide breakout upside, especially considering the lower draft capital they come with.
5 Fantasy Football Bounce Back Candidates for 2024
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons (ESPN ADP: 79.7)
After a promising 1,000-yard receiving season with Matt Ryan in his rookie year, Pitts has been dreadful ever since. Most of the blame for his disappointing production can be squarely placed on the shoulders of Arthur Smith, the embattled, now former head coach who drove us mad over the last few years in wasting the potential of top 10 draft picks in not only Pitts, but wide receiver Drake London and RB Bijan Robinson as well. The stubborn Smith insisted on a run-first approach, with lackluster quarterback play limiting any upside these star skill-position players possess. He simply misused and mismanaged his best players. Now in Pittsburgh as the offensive coordinator, fantasy managers can rejoice as Raheem Morris enters the fold as the new head coach, but that’s not even the most important part of this potential resurgence. With Kirk Cousins coming to the ATL in free agency, it’s a fresh start for Atlanta’s young trio, who should all benefit from the veteran pocket passer. Pitts goes from a fringe top-10 player at a weak position to a bonafide automatic start each week when you consider what Cousins did for TJ Hockenson in Minnesota. I would target him in the middle rounds after Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Trey McBride and George Kittle are gone. He borders the tier 1/2 category, although it depends how you feel about similar guys in that range such as Dalton Kincaid, David Njoku, Jake Ferguson and Evan Engram.
Pitts has freak traits and is the most athletic of this bunch, and because he has the highest upside, I’m taking a chance on him over the others mentioned considering his ADP value. In a 12-team league, we are talking middle-to-end of the 7th round value. With Cousins in town and the quarterback woes seemingly behind this team, Pitts is a borderline top 5 option who won’t cost you nearly as much as the top 3 tight ends. By the way, even if Cousins’ achilles recovery hampers him and the team is forced to roll out rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr, nobody is a better best friend to a young quarterback than a stud tight end.
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers (ADP: 105.0)
Watson was magnificent in the second half of Aaron Rodgers’ last season in Green Bay in 2022, as we saw a massive breakout from the then-rookie, only to see him battle multiple hamstring injuries last year in what was a disappointing season in his first year with Jordan Love. Even when healthy, he could never establish consistency in a now surprisingly crowded wide receiver room. Watson missed half of the 2023 season because of these injuries, but the former second-round draft pick has spent the offseason rehabbing and working to ensure the nagging injuries, which he attributes to “asymmetry” between his two legs, are a thing of the past. A risky selection nevertheless, Watson when healthy is at worst the #3 target on this offense, but has the upside to be the alpha receiver on this team. After all, that’s what the team envisioned when they drafted him. With Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks on the depth chart, as well as young up-and-coming tight ends in Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, how the distribution of targets shakes out will be an important thing to monitor, but Watson has immense upside in a young but talented offense.
We now know that quarterback Jordan Love is legit, and if he takes another step forward this year as many anticipate, you could do worse than taking a flier on Watson at his current ADP, which would be after round 10 in 10 team leagues or round 9 for 12 team leagues. I like grabbing Watson as a WR4 bench stash who could develop into a weekly lineup fixture as a flex option or even a fringe WR2/3 if he shows us the second half of his rookie season wasn’t a fluke. This is good value for someone you can take a wait-and-see approach on, and he’s not a bad depth option to have for bye weeks, or if injuries and/or attrition hit your roster.
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers (ADP: 168.4)
Sure, this isn’t a sexy pick. No one’s going to be saying, “Ooooooh, Bryce Young, nice pick!” In fact, you might even get made fun of for it. No, I’m not trying to live in a world where Bryce Young is my starting fantasy quarterback, but for those who believe in punting on the position until the later rounds of your draft, there is upside here. Hear me out. Young was doomed from the beginning last season as a rookie, when a seemingly perfect coaching staff around him turned out to be responsible for the most dysfunctional team in the NFL. While he never had great talent on the roster around him as far as skill position players, the coaching was at least supposed to help him develop. It did just the opposite and stunted his growth. Frank Reich, the now-former head coach and supposed “quarterback whisperer,” didn’t even last the whole year before he was fired, and former NFL quarterback Josh McCown wasn’t the great coaching resource many thought he would be. Young never had consistency even before Reich was gone, and having to switch from Reich calling plays to former offensive coordinator Thomas Brown didn’t help as the philosophies were completely different. This simply wasn’t a good situation for Young, and he never had a chance. I don’t believe it ruined him though, and I’m not expecting him to turn into Mac Jones. In fact, the Panthers did possibly the best thing they could for Young when they hired a more recent proven “quarterback whisperer” in Dave Canales to be their new head coach and try to right this ship.
Canales brings more than just new life and a fresh start to Carolina. The former Tampa Bay offensive coordinator was instrumental in the rebirth of quarterback Baker Mayfield last season, helping Mayfield achieve his best season as a pro as the Bucs won the NFC South and secured a playoff berth. Before his stint in Tampa, Canales also revived Geno Smith, a decade-long vet who never showed any promise as a starting quarterback in the NFL until Canales worked with him in his breakout season in Seattle in 2022. Canales is the best thing to happen to Bryce Young as he navigates his second year in the NFL, which is usually where you see quarterbacks take a big leap from year one. One of the major issues from Young’s 2023 campaign was the Panthers’ putrid offensive line, but they spent major money in free agency to fortify it. They also traded for Steelers receiver Diontae Johnson and traded up into the last spot of the first round of the NFL Draft to select star South Carolina receiver Xavier Legette, while bringing back wideout Adam Thielen to be a veteran presence in the locker room for a young skill group. They also drafted standout Texas running back Jonathon Brooks in the second round to fill out the backfield with Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders, giving the Panthers a balanced attack to help keep defenses honest and give Young another weapon to work with. Like I said, I wouldn’t want Young as my starting QB, but if I miss out on the top 10 options and am forced to go with a middle-of-the-line fantasy starter such as Trevor Lawrence or Tua Tagovailoa, I don’t mind coupling one of them with a guy like Young on my bench. Even so, you might not use him, but if he or your other quarterback show promise right away, you could always use it as a “sell-high” in a trade to strengthen another position. I like Young as a major bounce-back candidate compared to how awful he was last year, but this is the rare occurrence where he still might not benefit you unless you play in 2 QB or 14-team leagues. If that’s your situation though, you can still get Young basically for free towards the end of your drafts. Who knows, we could even be talking about Young as a top 15 option this time next year if Canales can capitalize on the traits that made Bryce Young the #1 overall pick in last year’s draft and turn Carolina into a capable offense. After all, he is two for two in his last two stints.
Marvin Mims JR, WR, Denver Broncos (ADP: 169.0)
Mims was a guy I swung and missed on last year in my 10-team league that starts 3 WRs and 2 FLEX. A hyped-up preseason didn’t amount to much for Mims, as he was phased out down the stretch in Sean Payton’s system, a surprise since the team traded up to get him in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Mims was projected to be the #3 wideout behind Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy after Tim Patrick suffered a torn ACL for the second year in a row, but he still never found his footing. Even with Patrick expected back this year, Jeudy is now with the Browns and the Broncos are desperate for help behind Sutton with rookie Bo Nix now the quarterback of the future. Mims could be that help, and I’m buying a breakout season from him in year 2. Although the Broncos drafted Oregon receiver Troy Franklin to pair with his college quarterback and brought in Josh Reynolds from Detroit, Mims seems in line for a substantial role, as Franklin might take time to adapt to the NFL game and Reynolds is more of a rotational receiver who shouldn’t be higher than 4th or 5th on the depth chart. The true wild card is Patrick, but after missing two years in a row, the rust and health concerns have me convinced that Mims is still the best value of this receiver room to target. He’s a deep threat who will be more valuable in non-PPR leagues, but he can essentially be had for free in drafts as the last receiver on your bench. His return on investment should provide profit, as Bo Nix has a stronger arm than many think and should have no problem delivering bombs down the field to Mims, even if he takes some time to acclimate to the NFL.
There’s still something to be said about playing in a Sean Payton offense, and for as much as Denver has struggled under him, he finally got the quarterback he wanted, and Denver will have to throw to keep up in a division that includes the mighty Kansas City Chiefs. You could do far worse than taking a shot on Mims. I’d target him as a WR5 or WR6 that could end up paying dividends down the stretch if you’re willing to be patient. Again, not a sexy name, but someone who should improve on his 2023 numbers and provide depth to those who want a high-ceiling option on their bench. Towards the ends of your drafts, you should be swinging for the fences on high-ceiling guys like this anyway, instead of players who have no ceiling but offer a stable floor. Take the risk on a fun, fast guy like Mims. He could also provide value on punt and kickoff returns in the first season of the new kick return rule if your league awards points for return touchdowns.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders (ADP: 169.5)
This is my favorite deep-league player on this list. Dotson was a monster at Penn State and was selected 16th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. Like his fellow receivers, Dotson has been hampered by poor quarterback play in his first two seasons, as Carson Wentz was his starting quarterback his rookie year before Taylor Heinicke took over. Dotson posted respectable numbers and scored seven touchdowns his rookie year, but the magic just wasn’t there last year with Sam Howell at quarterback, which was surprising considering the Commanders were ALWAYS trailing and needing to throw. Even with Howell throwing over 40 times a game most weeks, he favored Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel over the dynamic Dotson. Samuel is now off to Buffalo, opening the door for Dotson to establish himself as the clear #2 receiver for new franchise QB Jayden Daniels, who the Commanders took with the second overall pick in this year’s draft. Daniels is a massive upgrade over all of the previous quarterbacks that have mired this franchise in recent years, and I expect him to immediately catapult this passing attack, which is obviously great for this receiver room.
However, Washington also selected receiver Luke McCaffrey with the 100th overall pick in this year’s draft, and while many see this as an immediate threat to Dotson’s target share, I’m not as worried. With Samuel gone, I look at the versatile McCaffrey as the replacement for the #3 wideout role as the slot receiver, but Dotson should still have leverage on him for targets and I don’t see McCaffrey pushing him for the #2 role as a rookie. This offense also added the versatile Austin Ekeler as a capable playmaker in the passing game, but I think Dotson is the one who could break out as defenses look to contain all these weapons. Terry McLaurin is still the clear-cut #1 receiver, but I don’t think there’s as much separation between he and Dotson as people think. McLaurin has showed flashes and consistency, but has never truly established himself as an alpha. He’s solid but unspectacular, putting up 1,000-yard seasons every year but has never been a big touchdown scorer, something that Dotson succeeds at as he’s shown he is a much better red zone and goal line threat than McLaurin. McLaurin is also sneakily pretty old at 28 years of age. We know receivers start slowing down around age 30, so I think a year three breakout is definitely in the cards for Dotson. If he capitalizes on his talent, I won’t be surprised if Dotson steps up as the #1 target-getter on this team by season’s end. It will take some time to develop chemistry with Daniels, but the kid is going to be a stud quarterback, so why can’t he turn Dotson into a potential fantasy league-winner? Oh, and don’t forget, Kliff Kingsbury is his new offensive coordinator and has proved to be successful in coaching quarterbacks with names such as Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray and Caleb Williams over the course of his career.
At his ADP, I know I’ll be targeting Dotson in my 3 WR/2 FLEX league as a WR5 bench stash with immense upside. In a deep league, he can still be had in the 14th or 15th round. That’s too good to pass up on a team that will still have to be creative and throw a ton to keep up with the Eagles and Cowboys. Don’t sleep on him like everyone else seems to be.
