Two teams from opposite ends of the country are set to meet Sunday afternoon, when the San Francisco 49ers take on the New England Patriots. Over three thousand miles separates the 49ers’ home in Santa Clara and the Patriots’ Gillette Stadium, the site of Sunday’s game. The NFL odds offer a slight edge to the home team in this contest. Both teams have seen expert NFL picks go in their favor throughout the week.
This betting preview contains the NFL odds, key betting trends, prop bets and best NFL picks for 49ers vs Patriots on Sunday afternoon.
NFL Odds, NFL Picks, and NFL Props | 49ers vs Patriots
49ers vs Patriots Game Info
San Francisco 49ers (3-3, 2-0 Away) vs. New England Patriots (2-3, 1-1 Home)
Date: Sunday, Oct. 25, 2020
Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
Venue: Gillette Stadium — Foxborough, MA
Coverage: CBS
Attendance: No fans will be allowed to attend.
49ers vs Patriots NFL Odds
All odds courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook
Opening Lines: Patriots -3.5; O/U 45.5
Moneyline: SF: (+115) | NE: (-135)
Spread: SF: +2.5 (-105) | NE: -2.5 (-115)
Total: 44 — Over: (-115) | Under: (-105)
49ers vs Patriots Overview
Even though it’s only Week 7 of the NFL season, it sure feels like both the 49ers and Patriots could stand to call this game a must-win. Both teams are two games off the pace for their respective division leads. Both could also stand to build momentum ahead of crucial divisional matchups next week. In a game that projects to be a tight defensive battle, evidenced by the low total of 44, it could very well come down to a few key plays that decide the outcome.
The 49ers were able to get back to their winning ways last week against the Los Angeles Rams. Jimmy Garoppolo rebounded nicely following the abysmal performance in his first game back from an ankle injury. Finally having a full complement of healthy pass-catchers is certainly helpful. The dynamic young receiver tandem of Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are plenty capable of causing trouble for opposing defenses alongside the established threat of tight end George Kittle. Whether or not the 49ers can find similar offensive success against the stout Patriots defense this week remains to be seen. San Francisco’s backfield could be a committee as well after lead back Raheem Mostert was placed on IR this week.
The Patriots offered up a sluggish effort at home last week against the Denver Broncos. Given that it was New England’s first game in two weeks and came after limited and inconsistent practice time due to COVID-19 cancellations, perhaps it should’ve been expected. Cam Newton will have to be better going forward, and he has a decent opportunity to bounce back this week against a shaky San Francisco secondary. Much of the Patriots offensive hopes will likely hinge on the passing game given that the strength of the 49ers defense is the front line. Few teams have a greater adjusted defensive efficiency margin between their run rank (7th) and their pass rank (22nd) than the Niners. On the other side of the ball, Bill Belichick is sure to have a trick or two up his sleeve for former New England QB Garoppolo.
49ers vs Patriots Betting Trends
- 49ers 2020 Betting Trends: 3-3 ATS; 3-3 to the Over
- Patriots 2020 Betting Trends: 2-3 ATS; 2-3 to the Over
- Road teams are 3-0 both straight up and ATS in the last three head-to-head meetings between the 49ers and Patriots.
- The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five head-to-head meetings against the 49ers.
- The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at home against an opponent who played on Sunday Night Football the week prior.
49ers vs Patriots Stats
- San Francisco has averaged 24.7 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 20 in the NFL)
- San Francisco has surrendered 21.7 PPG this season (No. 10 in the NFL)
- New England has averaged 21.8 PPG this season (No. 25 in the NFL)
- New England has surrendered 22.0 PPG this season (No. 11 in the NFL)
Monkey Knife Fight NFL Props
Monkey Knife Fight is a DFS site unlike DraftKings or FanDuel. Instead, the contests feature props to play, with varying multipliers for each contest. Unlike the aforementioned sites, you are only competing with yourself on MKF, and you do not need to worry about annoying salary caps.
Monkey Knife Fight has several great NFL props for the entire Week 7 slate. Here is one of my favorites for the 49ers vs Patriots game.
With the NFL odds tabbing this game with a low total, I fully expect both defenses to shine. Looking at these statistical matchups, I find myself mostly preferring players from both sides. Despite having to lay 25.5 passing yards, I think Garoppolo and the 49ers offense will be forced into passing situations far more often in this game. I like James White to be active in this game and would trust him much more than a banged-up Julian Edelman. I also like Brandon Aiyuk to have a few catches in this game as San Fran tries to get their rookie playmaker involved. Damiere Byrd is clearly the Patriots lead receiver in terms of snaps played and routes run. He has a table target floor, but Deebo Samuel is getting half a reception in this matchup after seeing 8 and 6 targets in the last two games.
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49ers vs Patriots NFL Picks and NFL Odds
Both teams have shown flashes offensively at times this season. At other times they have looked very much inept. Considering that both sides pride themselves on tough defensive play, it’s no surprise that the total opened low and has been vet down slightly to boot. With the spread hovering below the key number of 3, this game feels very much like a pick’em.
After last week’s embarrassing effort against the Broncos, one has to believe that New England will bounce back. It’s interesting to see the 49ers take money this week after being so heavily bet against when they were at home last week. The look-ahead narrative could be applied to both teams in this game given that each has a matchup against the current leaders of their respective divisions next week. Even the head coaches are, for my money two of the best in football. In many ways, San Francisco and New England are very similar.
The difference-maker for me in this game is the opportunity to side with the best unit on either side of the ball with that being the Patriots’ defense. There won’t be fans at Gillette Stadium Sunday, but the opportunity to stay at home and rebound from a disappointing defeat last week is too much to pass up. Once again, I’m inclined to pick against the line move in a 49ers game. This time, however, the play is against San Francisco.
Pick: Patriots -2.5 (-115 at Bovada Sportsbook)
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