With football season being over and unknowns surrounding baseball, basketball is at the forefront of sports. The NCAA Tournament is one of the greatest sporting events today, but what makes it so special? The non-stop college basketball games, the rare matchups, and the drama all contribute to the fun. However, what makes March Madness truly special is when teams that nobody expects to win, win.
With all-time Cinderella stories like 2006 George Mason, 2011 VCU or 2023 Florida Atlantic, the NCAA Tournament is must-watch television. But who will be that mid-major college basketball program this year?
Conference tournaments are right around the corner, so I wanted to break down three mid-major teams who could make a run and in turn cause some damage in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
3 Mid-Major Schools Who Can Make an NCAA Tournament Run
Indiana State Sycamores | Mid-Major College Basketball
In 2024, the Indiana State Sycamores have put together one of their best seasons in school history. He is not quite Larry Bird, but the Sycamores are led by 6-10 center Robbie Avila. The sophomore averages 16.7 points, seven rebounds and 3.8 assists per game on 54% shooting from the field and 41% shooting from the three-point line. Partnering with junior guard Isaiah Swope, who scores 16.9 points per game 43% shooting from the field and 37% from the three-point line, these two create one of the best duos in the game today.
However, that is not all the talent on this Indiana State basketball team. Led by third-year head coach Josh Schertz, who made his name known at Division II school Lincoln Memorial from 2008-21, the Sycamores often employ a four-guard lineup surrounding Avila. With Avila’s dominance inside, sophomore Ryan Conwell has shot the ball at 46.5% this season, averaging 15.8 points. Guards Jayson Kent (13.1) and Julian Larry (10.8) round out the double-digit scoring for Indiana State, with Kent shooting the ball at a 62.3%/32.2%/82.4% clip.
KenPom currently has the Sycamores ranked 46th in the country, which is ahead of teams like South Carolina, Providence and Texas A&M. With that 46th ranking, KenPom has Indiana State as the 28th-best offense and 86th-best defense. Obviously, the offense is the bright spot there and that makes sense with five players scoring in double figures. The Sycamores are probably not going to win games by holding teams on defense, but there is no doubt that this team can score with anyone in the country. They have scored 90+ points 10 times this season. If they were to get hot against a team or two in the NCAA Tournament with poor defenses, I can certainly see Indiana State making the second weekend.
McNeese Cowboys | Mid-Major College Basketball
The McNeese Cowboys are currently ranked eighth in the College Insiders Mid-Major rankings. With a 13-1 record in the Southland Conference and a 24-3 record overall, the Cowboys have emerged as one of the top mid-major college basketball teams in the country. Head coach Will Wade is in his first season at McNeese State after being terminated for recruiting violations while he was at LSU. That has already shown to be a major factor, as the Cowboys are looking to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2002.
On the court, senior guard Shahada Wells leads the team in scoring, with 16.9 points per game (PPG) on 48.5% shooting from the field and 39.3% shooting from the three-point line. Wells is the piece that makes this team hum, but Wade also employs three more players who average double figures. Junior Christian Shumate scores 12.4 PPG, sophomore D.J. Richards Jr. averages 11 PPG on 46% shooting and junior Javhon Garcia adds 10.5 PPG. With all of the offense on the team, the Cowboys rank ninth in the country in three-point shooting percentage, at 38.6%. Overall, the Cowboys rank 34th in the country in scoring, with 80.6 PPG. They also hold opponents to just 38.1% shooting, which ranks third in the country.
KenPom currently has the McNeese Cowboys as the 66th-best college basketball team in the country. Once again, the offense from the Cowboys is one of the major factors in that ranking, as the Cowboys have the 58th-best offense in the country. Similar to Indiana State, if given the matchup against a poor defense, it makes sense that with experienced guard play, a great head coach and an offense that can get hot at any time, McNeese is a mid-major that can win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament.
Appalachian State Mountaineers | Mid-Major College Basketball
The Appalachian State Mountaineers are one of the best defensive teams in the country, point blank. This makes them a very tough mid-major college basketball squad. With a 24-5 record and 14-2 record overall in the Sun Belt Conference, KenPom currently has the Mountaineers as the 38th-best defense in the country. Overall, Appalachian State has held 13 opponents under 60 points. Among those opponents were UNC Wilmington, who is second in the Coastal Athletic Association Conference, and James Madison, who started the season as one of the last undefeated teams in the country.
The defense is where Appalachian State makes its money, as proven by only having three players score in double figures. Senior Donovan Gregory is the catalyst for the Mountaineers’ offense, as he averages 13 PPG on 49% shooting from the field and 44% from the three-point line. He partners with TreVon Spillers, who at 6-7 is an undersized post player, but he plays strong and averages 12.8 PPG. Spillers is a force in the paint though, as he corrals 8.6 rebounds per game. Finally, the last double-digit scorer is junior Terence Harcum at 11.9 PPG.
KenPom has the Mountaineers as the 81st-ranked team in the country. While that defense is ranked 38th, the offense sits at just 131st. Opposite to Indiana State, Appalachian State is going to win games due to their defense. Holding opponents to just 38.7% from the field, the Mountaineers rank fifth in the country in opponents’ shooting percentage. Given a matchup against a team that is struggling on offense, like Wisconsin or Mississippi State, Appalachian State can surely win a game or two in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
