Although the wide receiver position is usually more stable when it comes to injuries than running backs, it doesn’t mean it’s any easier to draft. With so many wide receivers drawing targets, drafting is crucial when it comes to receivers. You also don’t want to make a bad pick on a wide receiver when you could’ve picked a solid running back. The important thing, as it is every year during draft time, is to not lose your fantasy football draft.
The popular saying goes: “It’s extremely hard to win your league in the draft, but it’s incredibly easy to lose it.” Stay away from these three wide receivers, and you will start your fantasy football season on the right path. The average draft positions (ADP) were taken from Fantasy Football Calculator on August 16th and are for a 12-team PPR draft.
A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown was a very good receiver last season and ended up as WR13. He only missed two games and was about as consistent as it gets. However, being taken as WR8 and in the early third round doesn’t add up. Not only would he have to outperform last season, but he also has to do so with the acquisition of Julio Jones. While the Titans did lose receiver Corey Davis, A.J. Brown was the clear first option in the passing attack. Although he figures to still be “the guy,” it is more muddied with the addition of Julio. Sure, Jones is banged up a lot, but even if Brown puts up the same production, he’s never been a top-10 receiver in fantasy football.
According to our consistency rankings, A.J. Brown was a “bust” (outside of top-48) just over 21% of the time last season. Some receivers that had a lower “bust” percentage than that were Robby Anderson and CeeDee Lamb, and you could argue neither of them had a starting-caliber quarterback. You need consistency out of your top wideout and A.J. Brown couldn’t give it to you last year in one of his best seasons. What makes you think we’ll get it now with the addition of Julio Jones?
Julio Jones
What I’m trying to tell you is don’t waste your time on Tennessee receivers this year. They will likely be solid, but they aren’t going to be as good as their ranking. The perfect example is Julio Jones. Julio had a rough year in 2020 battling injuries and now gets a fresh start in Tennessee. He is ranked as WR14 and is taken in the early fourth round in fantasy football drafts. That’s high for an aging player who, even when he has played, has been below 100% most of the last two years.
Let’s assume that Julio played all 16 games last season. As “the guy” in Atlanta, he averaged just over 16 points per game. If we take that average and apply it to a full 16-game season, he would’ve scored just under 260 total points. That would’ve put him as WR14 last season, which is what he is being valued as currently. With that being said, not only does Julio need a completely healthy season, he needs to see the same production as last year. But now in a run-heavy offense where he is splitting targets with A.J. Brown, I’ll pass.
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Odell Beckham Jr.
It isn’t 2016 anymore. Odell Beckham Jr. is not a second or arguably even a third receiver anymore for fantasy football. OBJ saw his season cut short when he tore his ACL in a Week 7 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. At what point do people start to see that “bad luck” as massive durability issues? He has played more than 12 games just once since the 2016 season. As if that wasn’t enough, he isn’t even the main guy drawing targets in the Cleveland offense. Not only do Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry have good chemistry going, but they also are loaded in the backfield.
Beckham is currently drafted at WR26 (sixth round). For the life of me, I can’t tell you why. When he is at his best, he is well worth that spot, but we haven’t seen that production since 2016, outside of one season. In his only season with Cleveland where he was healthy virtually all season, he put up numbers that would’ve seen him as WR30 last year. To put him at WR26, even when healthy, is a stretch. Big names from players that used to be great don’t win games. Points do, and he isn’t producing enough of them.
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