NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks for Bears vs Commanders TNF Week 5

We’re onto Week 5 of the NFL season, starting with Thursday Night Football — a matchup between the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders. Below, I’ll go over my top DraftKings NFL DFS Showdown picks for the Bears vs. Commanders TNF Week 5 game.

This week’s matchup isn’t super intriguing from a DFS perspective but both squads are coming off of strong offensive performances. Can they both bring the same offensive momentum to make this game more interesting and potentially high-scoring or will this be a snoozefest?

It’s going to be a fun one regardless because well, it’s football, so let’s dive into how you should tackle this week’s DraftKings NFL DFS Showdown fantasy football slate. I’ll highlight my favorite Captain’s plays and FLEX plays below. 

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NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks for Bears vs. Commanders TNF Week 5

Favorite Captain NFL DFS Picks

Brian Robinson Jr. ($13,800)

Possibly the safest Captain’s play of Thursday’s DraftKings NFL DFS Showdown contest for Bears vs. Commanders is Brian Robinson Jr., who comes into this game having found the endzone four times already. He’s recorded at least ten carries and 45 yards in all four games thus far, solidifying the fact that he’s RB1 in an offense that gets to face an all-around abysmal Bears squad that ranks 31st in both defensive DVOA (22.7%) and point differential (-62). 

There’s no denying that the Bears are god-awful this season and it shows in the running game metrics. Through four weeks, Chicago has allowed a league-high 234 receiving yards and four touchdowns to running backs. Entering Week 5, the Bears already allowed the second-most fantasy points per game (132.8) to opposing running backs, so Robinson Jr. should be in line to feast in both the running and passing game. Also, if this game gets out of hand quickly and the Commanders jump out to an early lead, guess who is getting all those carries? 

Sam Howell ($14,100)

I wanted to roll with Justin Fields ($16,500) in hopes of him building off of his strong Week 4 performance, where he finished with 32.9 fantasy points, but it’s just too hard to trust the Bears. On the other sideline is Sam Howell, who is a much more enticing option and has played more consistently than Fields, regardless. Outside of his 4.6 fantasy point stinker in Week 3, Howell has been dependable — scoring at least 17 fantasy points in the other three matchups. He’s coming off of a strong offensive showing against a stingy Eagles defense and now gets to face the Bears. 

Like I said above with Robinson Jr., the Bears are bad in nearly every metric. You know how I said that Chicago allowed the second-most FPPG to opposing running backs this season? Yeah, well they’ve allowed the third-most FPPG to opposing quarterbacks (88.4). On top of that, the Bears’ defense has allowed 10 passing touchdowns and has recorded just one sack through four games.

Howell has been sacked the most by any quarterback so far (24) and committed four turnovers in Week 3 against the Bills because of the constant pressure. If the Bears aren’t generating any pressure, he won’t panic and will have the time to find his talented pass-catchers. Plus, you can stack him with either Terry McLaurin ($10,200) or Jahan Dotson ($7,000; ankle) to get even more value on this DraftKings NFL DFS Showdown slate. 

MORE: Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings – PPR and Half PPR

Favorite Value FLEX NFL DFS Picks

DJ Moore ($10,000)

I don’t think this game is going to go well for the Bears but for the sake of rostering at least one player for lineup purposes, let’s roll with easily the most talented player on the entire team, DJ Moore. Moore has 19 receptions for 301 yards and two touchdowns on the season but a huge chunk of that (8-131-1) came last week against the Broncos, the only defense that is somehow performing at a lower level than the Bears. His role has grown as the season has progressed but his lack of production mainly stems from Fields’ inability to be good at football. 

The Commanders’ defense is very centered around their high-powered pass rush, which has produced 13 sacks and gotten to the opposing quarterback nine percent of the time. However, the secondary has struggled — allowing the sixth-most FPPG to opposing wide receivers (172.9) thus far. While I expect Fields to struggle to fight off the constant pressure, I’m sure we’ll see plenty of forced balls thrown Moore’s way. You can roll with Darnell Mooney ($5,000) if you’re feeling risky but Cole Kmet ($6,400) is a much safer pivot option if you find yourself strapped for cash. 

Commanders D/ST ($5,400)

I’m sure some have picked up on the fact that the Bears are really bad and this game could get ugly pretty quick if the Commanders’ pass rush is getting home consistently. I understand the hesitation. They’ve allowed the fourth-most points against through four games (120) and have totaled a combined three fantasy points over the last two weeks but they faced the Bills and Eagles — two top offenses with talented wide receiver rooms. 

As I highlighted above, the pass rush is very efficient, totaling 13 sacks through four games. That trend is likely going to continue because Fields has been sacked a whopping 17 times — good for third-most in the league. Chicago ranks 29th in offensive DVOA (-22.4%) and that’s when factoring in the fact that Fields leads the league in average pocket time (2.7). He has all that time and has still been sacked 17 times so it’s scary to think about how inefficient he can truly be if he’s pressured any quicker. I’d even consider placing the defense in your Captain’s spot if you’re feeling like living on the edge a little. 

As always, let’s take a look at my favorite lineup for Thursday’s DraftKings NFL DFS Showdown slate for the Bears vs. Commanders game.

Favorite Lineup: NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks for Bears vs. Commanders TNF Week 5