If you are writing a book about the 2024-25 college basketball season, there has to be a chapter about this Missouri basketball team. Coming into the season, Missouri was projected to finish 13th in the SEC after a season that saw them go 0-18 in conference. After losing John Tonje to Wisconsin in the transfer portal this offseason, it seemed like the Tigers were once again going to be at the bottom of the conference.
That has not been the case though, as Missouri basketball has benefited from the play of a few “misfits” along with head coach Dennis Gates finding his footing after leaving Cleveland State a few seasons ago. But how far can the Missouri Tigers go in the NCAA Tournament? Let’s take a look!
Missouri Tigers Bracketology | March Madness Preview
Overall Record: 21-8
Conference Record: 10-6
Record vs. Ranked Teams: 5-3
| Rk | Net Rating | Off Rating | Def Rating | Strength of Schedule |
| 12 | +25.73 | 126.2 (5) | 100.4 (57) | +11.17 (47) |
Missouri Basketball Postseason Outlook
Tigers are Lead by Experienced Transfers
When breaking down the Missouri basketball roster, one thing stands out – they are led by an abundance of experience who have played for other teams in their careers. The leader of this Missouri team is Duke transfer Mark Mitchell. The 6-8 junior forward elected to transfer to Missouri in the wake of the Blue Devils signing Cooper Flagg in the offseason. While at Duke, Mitchell was a go-to scorer, averaging 10.3 points per game (PPG). Those 10.3 points came on 50% shooting from the field and 32% from the three-point line. Now given an opportunity to be the guy, Mitchell has increased those scoring numbers to 13.9 PPG. While his efficiency has dropped slightly, 49% from the field and 29% from three, his free throw numbers are up from 4.8 attempts to 6.7 attempts per game.
Next to Mitchell are Indiana transfer Tamar Bates (who is in his second season at Missouri) and Iowa State transfer Caleb Grill (who is in his second season at Missouri). Bates starts in the backcourt and averages 13.3 PPG on 51% shooting from the field and 41% from behind the arc. Grill comes off of the bench and is actually the leading scorer for the Tigers, scoring 14.3 PPG on 51% shooting from the field and 43% shooting from behind the arc.
Outside of Bates and Grill, sophomore and senior guards Anthony Robinson and Tony Perkins average 9.7 PPG and 8.3 PPG.
Missouri Basketball Offense Has Propelled Them to Victories Over Ranked Teams
With Mitchell, Grill and company, the Missouri Tigers currently have eight players who score more than five PPG. The offense in total ranks fourth in KenPom, averaging 84.6 PPG. Those 84.6 PPG rank seventh in the country. More than just the high scoring, the Tigers shoot the ball very well. They score the ball at a 49% clip from the field (15th in the country) and 38% from behind the arc (29th in the country). Scoring is not a problem for the Tigers as in any game that they are in, they will probably be the better-scoring team.
On the season, the Tigers’ offense has led them to wins over Kansas, Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Alabama. In their wins over those five teams, they scored more than 75 points. That includes a game where they scored 110 points to beat the Crimson Tide. What makes that offensive output even more impressive is that Alabama scored 98 points and never led one second of the game. While their out-of-conference schedule was not the strongest in the country, the SEC schedule is more than enough to make up for their strength of schedule.
How Far Can Missouri Basketball Go in the NCAA Tournament?
Given that they have experience across the board, as well as are battle-tested, the formula stands that Missouri has the chance to make a deep NCAA Tournament run. The downside of the team though is, as is the case with any team that relies on the offense, that if the shots aren’t falling, is the defense good enough to keep them in the game?
Looking at the games that Missouri has lost this season, three of them (Auburn, Texas and Texas A&M) came as the Tigers failed to score 70 points. While Dennis Gates had success at Cleveland State (two Horizon League regular season conference championships), it still feels like we are waiting to see his signature season at Missouri. That, along with the fear that the offense could go cold against tournament teams, gives me a little hesitation to take them to the Final Four.
It really feels like a four or five-seed either gets upset in the first round or goes to the Elite Eight. If I am a betting man, I am probably betting on the latter, but I am very interested to see what Missouri looks like in the SEC Tournament.
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