The UConn Huskies are taking on the Villanova Wildcats at the Finneran Pavilion today in what will be a big opportunity for Villanova to get arguably their first statement win of the season. Let’s take a look at the top college basketball betting picks, odds, betting trends and Haslametrics, then give our UConn vs Villanova prediction for the game tonight.
No. 9 UConn Huskies (12-3, 4-0 Big East) vs. Villanova Wildcats (10-5, 3-1 Big East)
Date: Wednesday, January 8, 2025
Time: 6:30 PM EST
Venue: Finneran Pavilion — Villanova, PA
Coverage: FS1
All college basketball betting odds for UConn vs Villanova can be found at BetUS Sportsbook.
Moneyline: CONN: (-135) | VILL: (+114)
Point Spread: CONN: -2 (-110) | VILL: +2 (-110)
Total: 147.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
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Haslametrics Rankings are from Haslametrics.com
| Team | Rank | Pace | Offensive Eff | Defensive Eff | Momentum |
| UConn | 26 | 64.98 (311th) | 124.95 (7th) | 102.18 (97th) | -0.04 (182nd) |
| Villanova | 38 | 63.81 (348th) | 126.46 (3rd) | 105.24 (142nd) | 4.31 (16th) |
According to Haslametrics’ All-Play Estimates and automated game preview, the Villanova Wildcats are projected to upset the UConn Huskies, 75-74.
Although the Huskies have rattled off eight straight wins after their three-game losing streak earlier this season, they haven’t looked anything like the UConn basketball teams of old. Although the Big East conference is a bear, and they do have some solid non conference wins too, they’ve recently struggled against Xavier, Butler and Providence.
Not only has UConn struggled lately, they have been an incredibly unpredictable team this year. They lost to three unranked teams this year in a row, but also had two impressive wins against Baylor and Gonzaga shortly thereafter. The biggest issue for the Huskies is that they foul much more than in year’s past.
UConn’s defense isn’t bad as a whole, but they rank 35th-worst in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate. That provides an interesting conundrum tonight as they face a Villanova team that struggles to get to the line, but is seventh in the nation in free throw percentage.
Villanova is a lot like UConn in that they have a very solid offense paired with a decent defense. They limit opponents in the paint and give up very few second chance opportunities. With UConn’s offense being as potent as it is, that will be crucial to getting the win tonight.
Unlike UConn, Villanova has looked really good in Big East play. Outside of a loss on the road to Creighton, Villanova dispatched their other three opponents with relative ease. Seeing that two of those three wins came against the same Butler and Providence that gave UConn a run for their money, the question can certainly be asked if Villanova is the better team right now.
For Villanova to win this game, they need another big game from fifth year senior Eric Dixon. Dixon has been solid the last two years, but has absolutely exploded this year, averaging over 25 points per game while shooting a whopping 49% from behind the arc. UConn can’t just send him to the line either as Dixon shoots over 84% from the line.
UConn has the better offense and arguably the better defense, but their fouling is a huge concern. They will certainly be able to handle a hostile road environment, but it certainly won’t help them either. In these big games, the team with the best player usually takes over the game down the stretch and pulls away with the win.
The best player on the court tonight is going to be Eric Dixon, the question just becomes what kind of game he has. Huskies coach Dan Hurley is one of the best in the business so he will have a plan in place for how to handle him. With UConn’s struggles as of late, and their inability to stop fouling, it seems unlikely that this is the game they turn it around. Expect Villanova to win a close game or at least cover the spread in what should be a great game.
Our college basketball betting UConn vs Villanova prediction tonight will be VILLANOVA +2 at BetUS.
For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives UConn a 55.5% chance to win.
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This post was last modified on January 7, 2025 11:01 PM
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