Duke vs Houston Prediction: Final Four Odds and Picks

In the second game of the Final Four in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, we get an incredible Duke vs Houston matchup. Duke got to the Final Four by steamrolling Alabama, while Houston did the same to Tennessee.

Below, we will preview this Final Four college basketball game, giving the Duke vs Houston overview, trends and our expert pick! Which school will win and keep their hopes of winning the championship trophy alive?

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Duke vs Houston Prediction and Final Four Expert Picks

2025 NCAA Tournament
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (35-3) vs. No. 1 Houston Cougars (34-4)
Date: Saturday, April 5, 2025
Time: 7:49 PM EST
Venue: Alamodome — San Antonio, TX
Coverage: CBS

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Duke vs Houston Final Four Odds

All college basketball betting odds for Duke vs Houston can be found at BetUS Sportsbook.

Moneyline: DUKE: (-260) | HOU: (+218)
Point Spread: DUKE: -5 (-115) | HOU: +5 (-105)
Total: 136 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

KenPom Rankings | Bracketology

KenPom Rankings are from KenPom.com

Team	Rk	AdjO	AdjD	AdjT
Duke	1	130.1 (1)	80.5 (5)	66.0 (269)
Houston	2	123.9 (10)	87.4 (1)	61.7 (360)

Duke vs Houston College Basketball Trends

• Duke is 5-0 in its last five games.
• Houston is 5-0 in its last five games.
• Duke is 13-2 in non-conference play this season.
• Houston is 12-3 in non-conference play this season.
• Duke is 12-3 in NCAA Tournament games since 2020.
• Houston is 15-4 in NCAA Tournament games since 2020.

Duke vs Houston Prediction | Final Four Expert Picks

Excluding their matchup against Arizona, which Duke was in control of for the entirety of the game, the Blue Devils have steamrolled their way through the NCAA Tournament. Over the four games, Duke has a win margin of +94, with the closest game being a seven-point victory over Arizona.

The Blue Devils sport a starting lineup with at least four of the five likely to see minutes in the NBA in the coming years. On top of that is the size. With every player in the starting lineup standing 6-4 or taller, the Blue Devils have the incredible ability to switch all over on defense and take advantage of mismatches on offense.

The obvious motor to Duke is Cooper Flagg. Flagg is undoubtedly the number one pick in the NBA draft and will probably win Player of the Year in college basketball. With fellow freshman Kon Kneuppel shooting as well as anyone in the country, this Duke duo is the best in the country. The reason that they have been able to steamroll in the tournament though, is Tyrese Proctor. He has been lights out shooting the ball and controlling the offense.

As is the case with every Kelvin Sampson-coached team, Houston will put you through hell and make you work for all 40 minutes in the game. Sampson has revitalized this Houston program into hard-nosed, blue-collar players. With their resiliency and mean attitude, Houston’s only test since February was Purdue in the Sweet 16. In fact, the Cougars have not lost since February.

Houston features KenPom’s number-one ranked defense. That defense reared its head as it held a really good Tennessee team to just 15 points in the first half. With players like J’Wan Roberts, LJ Cryer and Milos Uzan, the Cougars are a nightmare to play against, especially when you go down early like the Volunteers did.

Houston feels like the 1980s Detroit Pistons, where they are going to make life very difficult. You rarely will get an open shot and, if you miss, the Cougars will send all five at the ball. The issue when playing Duke though is their size. Duke’s dominance this season has hinged on the back of them just being bigger than everyone they have played. The Blue Devils found ample success in their Elite Eight matchup against Alabama by blitzing Mark Sears and completely taking him out of the game. That has to be the same game plan against Cryer in this matchup.

For our Duke vs Houston prediction, we are picking the Duke Blue Devils to win and move on in the NCAA Tournament.

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