In Week 16, the main DraftKings slate features 12 games and in order to help navigate your roster options, I’ll provide some data points for two or three players at each position that have the potential to return value over their salary implied totals.
Before reviewing some of the possible roster options for this weekend, there’s just a couple of quick notes beforehand.
All data and statistics included in this article are provided courtesy of FantasyData.com. All points allowed, points scored, and pricing is based on DraftKings (DK) data. In addition, all positional rankings and rankings for points allowed to each position is based on a points per game basis.
With that bit of housekeeping out of the way, let’s take a look at some of the fantasy relevant quarterbacks on Sunday.
Andrew Luck, $6200 (QB5)
Indianapolis vs New York Giants – Game Total 48 (IND -9.5)
If you are a regular reader, you know that I listed Andrew Luck in this column last week and he went on to have his worst fantasy outing of the year by logging a measly 9.68 DK points. Needless to say, last weekend was not exactly a banner outing for many players who have been consistent fantasy performers throughout the season. For lack of a better term, last week was just weird.
Regardless of Luck’s performance last Sunday, I’m not going to let what happened against the Cowboys cloud my judgment and I fully expect him to rebound against the Giants this week. Through the first fourteen games, Luck is averaging 26.8 completions, 39.8 attempts, 282.2 passing yards, 2.4 passing touchdowns, 0.9 interception, and 22.5 DK points per game. He has also thrown at least two touchdown passes in eleven of fourteen contests and he has eight games with three or more. He has also scored over 22.0 DK points in ten games.
Although the Giants defense is currently allowing the 10th-fewest DK points to opposing quarterbacks at 17.4 per game, Luck is averaging 24.3 DK points in games played in Lucas Oil Stadium and has scored 22.0 or more in six of the seven Colts home games this season. The list of opponents in these contests includes Houston, Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Tennessee, so Luck is fully capable of putting up solid fantasy numbers against quality defensive opponents. Other quarterbacks that have found success against the Giants defense this season include Deshaun Watson (29.0), Carson Wentz (24.52), Matt Ryan (22.26), Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick (27.64 combined), and Josh Johnson (25.3).
Drew Brees, $6300 (QB7)
New Orleans vs Pittsburgh – Game Total 53 (NO -6)
There’s no getting around it. From both a fantasy and real-world football perspective, Drew Brees has not been good the past three weeks. That said, should we really be surprised? Each of the Saints last three games have been on the road and Brees has always tended to play his best football at home in the Super Dome and the numbers back this up.
In the Saints six home games, Brees is averaging 28.7 DK points per game and in their eight road games, he has only averaged 17.1. In addition, not only has Brees played better at home, he plays best indoors. If you take out the 43.54 DK points he put up in Atlanta (domed stadium) in Week 3, his road total falls even lower to 13.3 DK points per game.
This week’s matchup against Pittsburgh in the Super Dome is a perfect get-right spot for Brees. With a win, New Orleans can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs and he will be facing a Steelers defense that is allowing the 13th most DK points to opposing quarterbacks at 20.0 per game. This season, six quarterbacks have scored 20.0 or more DraftKings points against the Steelers defense including Tyrod Taylor (24.58), Patrick Mahomes (41.84), Ryan Fitzpatrick (31.14), Joe Flacco (25.22), Philip Rivers (23.96), and Derek Carr (22.78).
Deshaun Watson, $6600 (QB11)
Houston @ Philadelphia – Game Total 46 (PHI -2)
Although the Texans are currently 10-4, they still need to win this weekend in order to clinch a playoff berth. They can also get a first round bye with a win and a loss by the Patriots, so they have plenty on the line in this game. With Lamar Miller currently questionable to play in this game, the Texans may need to lean on Watson more so than usual.
This season, Watson is averaging 20.8 completions, 30.7 attempts, 256.6 passing yards, 1.7 touchdown passes, 0.6 interceptions, and 21.2 DK points per game. Adding to his value, he also rushes the ball an average of 5.6 times per game for 31.1 yards and 0.14 rushing touchdowns. While Watson averages 22.4 DK points at home and 19.9 on the road, the difference between these totals isn’t drastically different.
In Week 16, Watson will be taking on an Eagles defense that is allowing the 10th most DK points to quarterbacks at 20.61 per game. Quarterbacks that have scored 20.0 or more points against Philadelphia include Ryan Fitzpatrick (33.98), Marcus Mariota (34.36), Cam Newton (25.66), Dak Prescott (21.7 and 30.4), and Drew Brees (34.22).
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